Homeopathy is (very strongly) antipredicted by science as we understand it, not just not-predicted.

Yeah, you're right. Though I think I've also heard people reference the evidence against the effectiveness of introspection as a reason to be skeptical about Focusing. Now if you look at the studies in question in detail, they don't actually contradict it - the studies are testing the reliability of introspection that doesn't use Focusing - but that easily sounds like special pleading to someone who doesn't have a reason to think that there's anything worth looking at there.

It doesn't help that the kinds of benefits that Focusing gives, like getting a better understand of why you're upset with someone, are hard to test empirically. Gendlin's original study said that people who do something like Focusing are more likely to benefit from therapy, but that could be explained by something else than Focusing being epistemically accurate.

I think the problem with Focusing is that it's a thing that happens to work but I don't think there's any mainstream scientific theory that would have predicted that it works, and even any retrodictions are pretty hand-wavy. So one might reasonably think "this doesn't follow from science as we understand it -> woo", the same as e.g. homeopathy or various misapplications of quantum mechanics.

By a "superintelligence" we mean an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills. [...]

Entities such as companies or the scientific community are not superintelligences according to this definition. Although they can perform a number of tasks of which no individual human is capable, they are not intellects and there are many fields in which they perform much worse than a human brain - for example, you can't have real-time conversation with "the scientific community".

-- Nick Bostrom, "How long until superintelligence" (1997)

However, creating the thing that people in 2010 would have recognized "as AGI" was accompanied, in a way people from the old 1900s "Artificial Intelligence" community would recognize, by a changing of the definition.

I interpret this as saying that

1. In 2010, there was (among people concerned with the topic) a commonly accepted definition for AGI,
2. that this definition was concrete enough to be testable,
3. current transformers meet this definition.

This doesn't match my recollection, nor does it match my brief search of early sources. As far as I recall and could find, the definitions in use for AGI were something like:

• Stating that there's no commonly-agreed definition for AGI (e.g. "Of course, “general intelligence” does not mean exactly the same thing to all researchers. In fact it is not a fully well-defined term, and one of the issues raised in the papers contained here is how to define general intelligence in a way that provides maximally useful guidance to practical AI work." -- Ben Goertzel & Cassio Pennachin (2007) Artificial General Intelligence, p. V)
• Saying something vague about "general problem-solving" that provides no clear criteria. (E.g. "But, nevertheless, there is a clear qualitative meaning to the term. What is meant by AGI is, loosely speaking, AI systems that possess a reasonable degree of self-understanding and autonomous self-control, and have the ability to solve a variety of complex problems in a variety of contexts, and to learn to solve new problems that they didnt know about at the time of their creation." Ibid, p. V-VI.)
• Handwaving around Universal Intelligence: A Definition of Machine Intelligence (2007) which does not actually provide a real definition of AGI, just proposes that we could use the ideas in it to construct an actual test of machine intelligence.
• "Something is an AGI if it can do any job that a human can do." E.g. Artificial General Intelligence: Concept, State of the Art, and Future Prospects (2014) states that "While we encourage research in defining such high-fidelity metrics for specific capabilities, we feel that at this stage of AGI development a pragmatic, high-level goal is the best we can agree upon. Nils Nilsson, one of the early leaders of the AI field, stated such a goal in the 2005 AI Magazine article Human-Level Artificial Intelligence? Be Serious! (Nilsson, 2005): I claim achieving real human-level artificial intelligence would necessarily imply that most of the tasks that humans perform for pay could be automated. Rather than work toward this goal of automation by building special-purpose systems, I argue for the development of general-purpose, educable systems that can learn and be taught to perform any of the thousands of jobs that humans can perform."

That last definition - an AGI is a system that can learn to do any job that a human could do - is the one that I personally remember being the closest to a widely-used definition that was clear enough to be falsifiable. Needless to say, transformers haven't met that definition yet!

Claude's own outputs are critiqued by Claude and Claude's critiques are folded back into Claude's weights as training signal, so that Claude gets better based on Claude's own thinking. That's fucking Seed AI right there.

With plenty of human curation and manual engineering to make sure the outputs actually get better. "Seed AI" implies that the AI develops genuinely autonomously and without needing human involvement.

Half of humans are BELOW a score of 100 on these tests and as of two months ago (when that graph taken from here was generated) none of the tests the chart maker could find put the latest models below 100 iq anymore. GPT5 is smart.

We already had programs that "beat" half of humans on IQ tests as early as 2003; they were pretty simple programs optimized to do well on the IQ test, and could do literally nothing else than solve the exact problems on the IQ tests they were designed for:

In 2003, a computer program performed quite well on standard human IQ tests (Sanghi & Dowe, 2003). This was an elementary program, far smaller than Watson or the successful chess-playing Deep Blue (Campbell, Hoane, & Hsu, 2002). The program had only about 960 lines of code in the programming language Perl (accompanied by a list of 25,143 words), but it even surpassed the average score (of 100) on some tests (Sanghi & Dowe, 2003, Table 1).

The computer program underlying this work was based on the realisation that most IQ test questions that the authors had seen until then tended to be of one of a small number of types or formats. Formats such as “insert missing letter/ number in middle or at end” and “insert suffix/prefix to complete two or more words” were included in the program. Other formats such as “complete matrix of numbers/characters”, “use directions, comparisons and/or pictures”, “find the odd man out”, “coding”, etc. were not included in the program— although they are discussed in Sanghi and Dowe (2003) along with their potential implementation. The IQ score given to the program for such questions not included in the computer program was the expected average from a random guess, although clearly the program would obtain a better “IQ” if efforts were made to implement any, some or all of these other formats.

So, apart from random guesses, the program obtains its score from being quite reliable at questions of the “insert missing letter/number in middle or at end” and “insert suffix/prefix to complete two or more words” natures. For the latter “insert suffix/prefix” sort of question, it must be confessed that the program was assisted by a look-up list of 25,143 words. Substantial parts of the program are spent on the former sort of question “insert missing letter/number in middle or at end”, with software to examine for arithmetic progressions (e.g., 7 10 13 16 ?), geometric progressions (e.g., 3 6 12 24 ?), arithmetic geometric progressions (e.g., 3 5 9 17 33 ?), squares, cubes, Fibonacci sequences (e.g., 0 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 ?) and even arithmetic-Fibonacci hybrids such as (0 1 3 6 11 19 ?). Much of the program is spent on parsing input and formatting output strings—and some of the program is internal redundant documentation and blank lines for ease of programmer readability. [...]

Of course, the system can be improved in many ways. It was just a 3rd year undergraduate student project, a quarter of a semester's work. With the budget Deep Blue or Watson had, the program would likely excel in a very wide range of IQ tests. But this is not the point. The purpose of the experiment was not to show that the program was intelligent. Rather, the intention was showing that conventional IQ tests are not for machines—a point that the relative success of this simple program would seem to make emphatically. This is natural, however, since IQ tests have been specialised and refined for well over a century to work well for humans.

IQ tests are built based on the empirical observation that some capabilities in humans happen to correlate with each other, so measuring one is also predictive of the others. For AI systems whose cognitive architecture is very unlike a human one, these traits do not correlate in the same way, making the reported scores of AIs on these tests meaningless.

Heck, even the scores of humans on an IQ test are often invalid if the humans are from a different population than the one the test was normed on. E.g. some IQ tests measure the size of your vocabulary, and this is a reasonable proxy for intelligence because smarter people will have an easier time figuring out the meaning of a word from its context, thus accumulating a larger vocabulary. But this ceases to be a valid proxy if you e.g. give that same test to a people from a different country who have not been exposed to the same vocabulary, to people of a different age who haven't had the same amount of time to be exposed to those words, or if the test is old enough that some of the words on it have ceased to be widely used. 

Likewise, sure, an LLM that has been trained on the entire Internet could no doubt ace any vocabulary test... but that would say nothing about its general intelligence, just that it has been exposed to every word online and had an excessive amount of training to figure out their meaning. Nor does it getting any other subcomponents of the test right tell us anything in particular, other than "it happens to be good at this subcomponent of an IQ test, which in humans would correlate with more general intelligence but in an AI system may have very little correlation".

I don't know. I had a recent post where I talked about the different ways how it's confusing to even try to establish whether LLMs have functional feelings, let alone phenomenal ones.

Depends on whether it thinks of itself as conscious in a conscious or non-conscious way.

there is no possible way to arrange a system such that it outputs the same thing as a conscious system, without consciousness being involved in the causal chain to exactly the same minimum-viable degree in both systems

GPT-2 doesn't have the same outputs as the kinds of systems we know to be conscious, though! The concept of a p-zombie is about someone who behaves like a conscious human in every way that we can test, but still isn't conscious. I don't think the concept is applicable to a system that has drastically different outputs and vastly less coherence than any of the systems that we know to be conscious.

One balancing factor is that overconfidence also makes AIs less capable, as they overconfidently embark on plans that are also disastrous to themselves. (This is part of the reason why I expect us to have more warning shots from misaligned AIs than traditional takeover scenarios imply - I expect the first misaligned AIs in such scenarios to have poorly calibrated predictions and fail partway through their takeover attempts.)

My reaction to seeing this kind of a post on LW is a pleasant wuckles.