LESSWRONG
LW

1919
KAP
-2140
Message
Dialogue
Subscribe

Posts

Sorted by New

Wikitag Contributions

Comments

Sorted by
Newest
Is suffering like shit?
KAP7d*10

There will be plenty of new sufferings that we haven't imagined yet. And if we are wildly successful at avoiding all kinds of suffering, we'll all be bored.

Every new human advancement solves a problem but creates new baseline expectations, which are new opportunities for disappointment.

Reply
How long do AI companies have to achieve significant capability gains before funding collapses?
KAP10d*-4-7

This is not a response per se, but an expression of displeasure. A few companies decided it was appropriate to gamble a significant fraction of the GDP on behalf of everyone - without anyone's permission. And now we are all locked into an economic gambit with no offramp. We either dedicate everything to making this work or we are all living in the hellish aftermath of a hideously large bubble bursting. It's as if we conjured the economic equivalent of Roko's Basilisk into being.

To answer the question posed, X is between 0 and 1.

Why do I believe this? Because if companies are already resorting to financial engineering in order to buy themselves a little more time to find PMF, then they have already resorted to extraordinary measures. Which means they have run out of alternatives. Which means we are not in an early stage of the bubble.

Reply
Futarchy's fundamental flaw
KAP4mo10

There are specific conditions under which conditional probability differs from causal intervention. Suppose we are comparing conditional probability P(Y|X=x) to intervention P(Y|do(X=x)). When there are no "backdoor paths" from Y to X - which loosely speaking, are indirect paths of influence - then these are equal.

Reply
No wikitag contributions to display.
8Gradient Descent on Token Input Embeddings
4mo
0