LESSWRONG
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Karl Erdbeerhof
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Belief Revision As Probability Elimination
Karl Erdbeerhof4y*10

I don’t get the sock drawer problem. Intuitively it’s as described. But say I’m blind. Then every 10% per drawer divides into like 1% per square inch in my drawer (I have to feel my way through the whole drawer). Remembering “80% that I put it in one of these drawers” should have that probability waterfall running down, amassing in the last drawer. Otherwise if the sock is in the last drawer’s furthest corner - my odds would be 1:20 for feeling through the whole room / house instead of exhausting the 80% I’ve allocated to my “drawer area”. Sure, I’d be mighty anxious when I’m down to the last drawer. But still. Can anyone point out my mistake? Thanks!

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