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Karl Krueger
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1Karl Krueger's Shortform
9mo
16
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Probiotics For Traveler's Diarrhea Prevention
Karl Krueger22m10

Why do I need to keep taking it? Shouldn’t a single batch be enough to colonize?

With apologies to Kipling: Once you have paid for the yogurt, you never get rid of the yoke.

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Eric Neyman's Shortform
Karl Krueger12h10

There doesn't seem to be consensus among economists regarding whether those "solid arguments" actually describe the world we're living in, though.

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The Rise of Parasitic AI
Karl Krueger13h72

On a darker note, "spiral" also has a memetic connection to insanity, delirium, or loss of will — as in the 😵‍💫 emoji, the 1987 mind-control-apocalypse cartoon Spiral Zone, the TMBG song "Spiraling Shape" (will make you go insane!), etc.

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Karl Krueger's Shortform
Karl Krueger3d52

Today I learned:

If you ask Claude or Gemini to draw an icosahedron, it will make a mess.

If you ask it to write code that draws an icosahedron, it will do very well.

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Mics, Bandwidth, Action: Fix Your Videoconferencing Setup
Karl Krueger5d10

I don't know. I don't tend to type a lot on a call. Will have to ask folks next time!

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Mics, Bandwidth, Action: Fix Your Videoconferencing Setup
Karl Krueger5d32

Consider a separate microphone. I started using a Blue Snowball mic when I had a job making instructional videos, and stuck with it for casual videoconference use too. The audio is much clearer than a headset mic or webcam built-in mic.

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A Pitfall of "Expertise"
Karl Krueger6d30

Just to make it harder:

In one sense, you're writing a stream of symbols, in which the . appears strictly before or after the ".

But in another sense, you're writing something that will be typeset into a two-dimensional medium, such as a computer screen. The stream of symbols is source code that gets compiled into a visual presentation. Only part of that compilation process is under your control. You control the stream of input symbols. LessWrong's CSS styles (and the browser's defaults) control things like kerning and spacing. And the reader's GUI settings control things like subpixel antialiasing.

And, as it happens, when you write ". above and it's rendered on my screen, the dot ends up entirely beneath the quote, and when you write .", the dot is mostly beneath the quote.

This sort of thing is happening all the time.

Generations of typists were taught to use two spaces after a period; a standard that developed on monospaced typewriters. But typeset output in a proportional font almost always collapses adjacent spaces together: word spacing is not dictated by the number of space characters in the input stream. (Except     where     it     is.)

Some writers experience frustration at seeing their "correct" double-spacing "broken" by modern typesetting. This is probably a deadweight loss of happiness; they would be better off not caring.

Sometimes, the author does need to take control of the whole typesetting pipeline, to preserve accuracy. That's why Knuth created TeX. Most writers don't have the problems that Knuth had, though.

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All Exponentials are Eventually S-Curves
Karl Krueger6d30

It's possible to fit data points to an S-curve without assuming where it flattens out — but then you might not draw the limit as part of your prediction. We don't want to assume the thing can grow forever; the market saturates somewhere, even if we don't know where.

Like, if you're forecasting traffic growth for a web service, you know that there's a finite amount of human attention that can be spent on looking at web pages. It might be a lot higher than anyone expected, but it's not infinite.

See for instance Wikipedia's growth models (sadly not updated since 2015) — they started out with an exponential model and then ended up with Gompertz being much more accurate.

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All Exponentials are Eventually S-Curves
Karl Krueger8d65

Yes, if you want to model growth, you probably want something like a sigmoid or Gompertz curve, whose value approaches some limit rather than rising infinitely forever.

But if you want to actually draw that curve, and use it to predict effects that you care about, you need to know what limit it approaches.

Whether that curve approaches 1 or 10^100, is going to matter a lot.

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The Cats are On To Something
Karl Krueger9d141

Discovering that an alien species has bred a group of humans into what a pug is to a wolf would be absolutely horrific.

This is the cynical view on agriculture.

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1Karl Krueger's Shortform
9mo
16