I find EY’s main points very convincing and helpful. After reading this and the follow-on thread, my only nit is that using the suspension-of-relations question as one of the examples seems pedagogically odd, because perfectly rational (OK, bounded-rational but still rational) behavior could have led to the observed results in that case.
The rational behavior that could have led to the observed results is that participants in the second group, having been reminded of the “invade Poland” scenario, naturally thought more carefully about the likelihood of such an invasion (and/or the likelihood of such an invasion triggering suspension), and this more careful thinking caused them to assign a higher probability to the... (read more)
I find EY’s main points very convincing and helpful. After reading this and the follow-on thread, my only nit is that using the suspension-of-relations question as one of the examples seems pedagogically odd, because perfectly rational (OK, bounded-rational but still rational) behavior could have led to the observed results in that case.
The rational behavior that could have led to the observed results is that participants in the second group, having been reminded of the “invade Poland” scenario, naturally thought more carefully about the likelihood of such an invasion (and/or the likelihood of such an invasion triggering suspension), and this more careful thinking caused them to assign a higher probability to the... (read more)