Multicore

This was my first time participating in D&D.Sci after reading a lot of the other ones. This one drew me in with its low advertised difficulty rating and by seeming more amenable to my skillset (writing lots of python scripts yes, fancy stats and ML tricks no).

I'm happy enough coming close to the regulars. I wouldn't give myself the point for Averill - I noticed the irregularity but I assumed even until the end that it was some sort of second order effect like "Averill is mostly in town when class is in session, and someone else only heals rumblepox when class isn't in session."

More accusations:

Observation:

Accusations so far:

Observations:

If it worked earlier today (and you didn't make any commits in the meanwhile), you may need to do something more like "binary search through your undo history."

If this is an issue consistently, it means you need to commit more often.

My interpretation of what Inside Out says about sadness is different from how people usually describe it:

Throughout the movie, characters constantly inadvertently signal to Riley that they don't care about her. Her dad is preoccupied with his startup and sends her to bed without supper on a flimsy pretext. Her mom is preoccupied with the moving process and has to be reminded to kiss Riley good night. Her teacher calls on her in a way that ends with Riley being humiliated in front of the entire class. Her old friends have replaced her, and no one at her new... (read more)

Reminds me of The Epistemic Prisoner's Dilemma.

The Y-axis on that political graph is weird. It seems like it's measuring moderate vs extremist, which you would think would already be captured by someone's position on the left vs right axis.

Then again the label shows that the Y axis only accounts for 7% of the variance while the X axis accounts for 70%, so I guess it's just an artifact of the way the statistics were done.

In Magic: The Gathering, basically anything technically complying with the rules is valid.

Magic actually offers a good example of varying chicanery levels. The game rules themselves are basically Chicanery: Yes. If it looks like a particular combination of cards could give you unlimited mana or unlimited damage, it probably does. (There are some exceptions, seemingly legal sequences of game actions that are not allowed, but not many.)

However, there are things around the game that are Chicanery: No, like bribing your opponent to concede or exploiting bugs i... (read more)

The same interviewer has now done two more podcasts on Ziz.

With Adrusi: 

With @jessicata: 

Edit: Another one with toasterlighting/Celene Nightengale. This one is mostly about Audere, the alleged murderer of the landlord.

Oh, I see, one could reasonably misinterpret the bullet points in my original comment as being about "the way many people have been describing the situation" rather than "major claims in the podcast". Sorry for the ambiguity.

To be clear these are just patterns of claims made by Slimepriestess in the linked podcast, and I have no corroborating evidence. But for example at 2:06:00 in the video she says:

At least as far as, like, Ziz et al goes, I don't think that's a remotely accurate description of... Like, there's no organization, there's no centralization, it's not like we have Ziz on, on speed dial and ask her what to do every day. Like, we're just a bunch of anarchist trans leftists that are, like, trying to exist in Current Year

With other variations of the same claims elsewhere in the video.

Major claims in the podcast that go against the way many people have been describing the situation:

• It's not a "cult" in the sense of demanding unquestioning obedience to an authority figure who enforces a dogma. (Though it fits other definitions of "cult" like "insular group with unusual beliefs".) It's a loose group of people who read each others' blogs and argued with each other on the same Discord servers. Ziz isn't in charge in any meaningful sense.
• The group's extreme actions aren't primarily due to the esoteric beliefs that take 100 pages of jargon-fi

In Commerce & Coconuts, it seems like anyone who rolls a 4, 5, or 6 for boat building can coast on their starting supplies, build boats every turn, and escape by the end of turn 3 with no trading whatsoever.

a strategic voter doing approval voting learns to restrict their approval to ONLY the "electable favorite", which de facto gives you FPTP all over gain.

Wouldn't you restrict your approval to your favorite of the frontrunners, and every candidate you like better than that one? I don't see how you do worse by doing that under vanilla Approval Voting.

That leaves some favorable properties compared to FPTP

• If there's a candidate perceived as unelectable, but secretly most people like him more than the frontrunners, he will win under strategic approval voting.
• Clo

If you receive a threat and know nothing about the other agent’s payoffs, simply don’t give in to the threat!

With an important caveat: if carrying out the threat doesn't cost the threatener utility relative to never making the threat, then it's not a threat, just a promise (a promise to do whatever is locally in their best interests, whether you do the thing they demanded or not).

You're going to have a bad time if you try to live out LDT by ignoring threats, and end up ignoring "threats" like "pay your mortgage or we'll repossess your house".

This distinction of which demands are or aren't decision-theoretic threats that rational agents shouldn't give in to is a major theme of the last ~quarter of Planecrash (enormous spoilers in the spoiler text).

But now you have the new problem that most of the probabilities in the conjunctive market are so close to the risk free interest rate that it's hard to get signal out of them.

For example, suppose I believed that Mark Kelly would be a terrible pick and cut Harris's chances in half, and I conclude that therefore his price on the conjunctive market should be 2% rather than 4%. Buying NO shares for 96 cents on a market that lasts for several months is not an attractive proposition when I could be investing mana elsewhere for better returns, so I won't bother a... (read more)