I'm a longtime lurker who has taken interest in the new tagging system.


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The Mutant Game - Rounds 11 to 30

In the Mutant Game, the PasswordBots aren't really on my team. Since it appears to them that the opponent started with 3, they will play 3 on every turn against everybody.

If the round index is always 0, that means the clone truce never ends and you have population dynamics based on which clones are getting 300-200 against which other clones. Not sure if it will be stable or not.

I suspected that my simulation strategy didn't end up being all that useful, but I'm still curious what bots I managed to simulate at all. Presumably at least the PasswordBots. I guess I can find out when the code is released.

The Darwin Game - Rounds 21-500

It also significantly affected people's expectations of the metagame and made them prepare for simulators. BendBot and CloneBot were made deterministic so that simulators could efficiently cooperate with them.

The Darwin Game - Rounds 21-500

Wow, that was not what I would have predicted from the last set of results. It looks like the trend in my population from when the clones were a little nasty accelerated when the clones got really nasty.

In the true game with AbstractSpyTreeBot, MeasureBot is going to be eating it at the same time I'm eating the clones, but is it going to be a boost as extreme as this?

In the endgame everyone cooperates with everyone else, and it seems to be down to openings and match-breaking strategies. LiamGoddard and MeasureBot always start 3, BendBot alternates between starting 2 and starting 3 on a per-round basis, and EarlyBirdMimicBot randomly starts 2 or 3 using the python random number generator. BendBot uses a fixed pseudorandom sequence to try to break matches, EarlyBirdMimicBot picks 2 or 3 with equal probability, MeasureBot plays 2 with probability 0.69 possibly with some special cases, and I'm not sure what LiamGoddard does.

Silly 2 bot lasted longer than anyone could have reasonably expected. The Clone Wars presumably gave it a second wind, as folding was a sound strategy against the clones' aggressive plays.

BeauBot in sixth place is the best scoring bot we don't have a clear explanation of yet.

Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong

This was a neat feature on Arbital, nice to see it here as well.

The Darwin Game - Rounds 10 to 20

If OscillatingTwoThreeBot (sixth place) is exactly what it says on the tin and always plays 23232323..., you get perfect cooperation with it 100% of the time. Could be a nice minor advantage.

The Darwin Game - Rounds 10 to 20

I notice I was slightly declining for a bit until round 10, where I started shooting up again. I'm not sure if it's because I changed my strategy at that point and scored more or because a bunch of other people changed their strategy at that point and scored less. I think it's more the latter, particularly increasing clone hostility.

Clones have slightly lost ground since last time. Without critical mass, their increasing hostility will hurt them more than the opponents. It looks like we're heading for a repeat of history, with Measure as the Zvi to my David. Because MeasureBot always starts 3 in the endgame and I randomize 50/50, I think I slowly lose if its starting population is bigger than mine and it's just us. If there are multiple endgame bots my more cooperative nature could be an advantage.

Actual Zvi's BendBot has gained significant ground after being in the middle of the pack in earlier rounds. Maybe it handles the middle game especially well. LiamGoddard in fourth place is the highest ranked bot we haven't gotten any explanation of.

The "true timeline" with AbstractSpyTreeBot is probably going to be this but more extreme, since ASTB feeds Measure even more.

Larks, excellent name choice for your AttackBot.

The Darwin Game - Rounds 3 to 9

Not quite as good for me as I would have hoped, but we're leaving the early game and heading into the midgame, where the clones will gradually start defecting against outsiders, leading to a showdown for dominance between clones and Chaos. The clones don't quite seem to have critical mass, but I care less about who wins and more about how long it lasts.

The graph for Silly 2 Bot is great, it shows exactly where weirdos and attackers became a marginal force.

The Darwin Game - Rounds 1 to 2

Silly 2 bot is absolutely killing it in this version. With the early pool having plenty of attackers and unpredictable weirdos, it turns out unconditionally folding is better for you than almost anything. EarlyBirdMimicBot's willingness to fold against uncompromising attackers in the early game is probably a decent chunk of my edge.

After the weirdos and attackers die off, I expect silly 2 bot will be destroyed in the midgame, and if too many people played it it would feed attackers, but a strategy that unconditionally folded in the first few rounds and did something else later would have been one of the stronger members of Chaos Army.

The clones are still more spread out than I would expect, but maybe that's just matchup randomness?

What Belongs in my Glossary?

An explanation of what Tier One, Tier Two, Tier Three, etc mean in your game reviews.

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