Kevin Kohler

The post What Other Lines of Work are Safe from AI Automation? from Roger Dearnaley examined candidate job categories "for which being an actual real human is a prerequisite". This post expands on the examples of Swiss watches, chess, and Taylor Swift in a slightly more narrative way and particularly highlights the curious economic logic of Veblen goods. 1. How Swiss watches defy the regular economic logic Switzerland is the global capital of mechanical watches. High-end mechanical watches are masterpieces of engineering and craftsmanship. There is no mass production of high-end mechanical watches, instead they require meticulous adjustment by skilled human watchmakers that assemble them individually. A high-end mechanical watch can achieve remarkable precision. However, the nature of their mechanical components means they are subject to slight variations in timekeeping due to wear, temperature fluctuations, and positional changes. High-end mechanical watches that are certified as chronometers by official bodies like the COSC (“Contrôle Officiel Suisse des Chronomètres”) need to typically meet the accuracy standard of -4/+6 seconds per day, which translates to a variance of up to 3 minutes per month. Really high-end mechanical watches may have more stringent requirements. For example, the typical accuracy of Patek Philippe watches is within the range of -3/+2 seconds per day, or about 1 minute per month. This is impressive, but if the accuracy of time-keeping were the main function of a Patek Philippe it would not be able to compete. In 1967 the first quartz wristwatch was developed. When an electric current is applied to the quartz, it vibrates at a precise frequency of 32,768 times per second. This high-frequency oscillation allows the watch to keep very accurate time, typically losing or gaining only a few seconds per month. Furthermore, quartz watches are much less complex than mechanical watches. Most parts can be produced and assembled with minimal human i