May I submit reading anything by William Bernstein to anyone interested in a math-heavy discussion of this? The book "the intelligent asset allocator" is the most math heavy of the set.
His best quote on this is "assume a very fat tail" i.e. assume statistically unlikely events are rather likely as a group.
I would also like to take a moment to praise Alexander Hamilton and his friends for setting the precedent that the US has never defaulted. We were awfully close after the revolutionary war.
I agree completely that naturals have a hard time being teachers. At least to anyone who isn't a natural.
I started practicing karate at 24, I also have cerebral palsy that effects my right side, and I never seriously perused any sports in my education. So as a white belt even moving around for an hour of class was hard. making my hands do what was asked of them was very hard.
One of my teachers was a natural, had spent so many years training that anything looked effortless. He would show you how to do something once, and fast. then would move onto variations on that because he was bored with teaching "the basics"
Then there was another instructor, overweight and just about to be 40. He had to think about where he was, what he was doing. And had also spent much of his young life as an officer on a frigate. He could teach you a Kata in an hour and make it stick.. He was methodical, he knew to describe all the problems you would have if you weren't a natural.
I'm sure naturals thought he was slow.
I appreciate what the first instructor can offer six years later. When the basics come easy to me. But he still inspires more than teaches.
So it has definitely been my experience that people who have had to work through something hard find it easier to teach people who find it hard. That they are naturals at teaching people who aren't naturals.