LDJ

TLDR: Skip to the last image at the bottom of my post to see the visualization. I don't usually post here, but I know you folks like forecasting and timelines, so I think you might appreciate this. The recent time horizons paper by METR is great, but it only visualized...

Addressing misconceptions about the big picture of AI progress. Why GPT-5 isn't late, why synthetic data is viable, and why the next 18 months of progress is likely to be greater than the last. This LW post is mainly summarizing my first blog post I've ever made (just published earlier...