Lech Mazur

Advameg, Inc. CEO 

Founder, city-data.com 


Author: County-level COVID-19 machine learning case prediction model. 

Author: AI assistant for melody composition.

Wiki Contributions


It might be informative to show the highest degree earned only for people who have completed their formal education.

I think the average age might be underestimated: the age of the respondents appeared to have a negative relationship with the response rates (link).

If we were to replace speed limit signs, it might be better to go all out and install variable speed limit signs. It's common to see people failing to adjust their speed sufficiently in poor conditions. A few days ago, there was a 35-vehicle pileup with two fatalities in California due to fog.

It's a lot of work to learn to create animations and then do them for hours of content. Creating AI images with Dall-E 3, Midjourney v6, or SDXL and then animating them with RunwayML (which in my testing worked better than Pika or Stable Video Diffusion) could be an intermediate step. The quality is already high enough for AI images, but not for video without multiple tries (it should get a lot better in 2024).

  1. Will do.

  2. Entering an extremely unlikely prediction as a strategy to maximize EV only makes sense if there's a huge number of entrants, which seems improbable unless this contest goes viral. The inclusion of an "interesting" factor in the ranking criteria should deter spamming with low-quality entries.

Kalshi has a real-money market "ChatGPT-5 revealed" for 2023 (that I've traded). I think they wouldn't mind adding another one for 2024.

I'm a fan of prediction markets, but they're limited to pre-set bets and not ideal for long-shot, longer-term predictions, mainly because betting against such a prediction means a loss compared to risk-free bonds if money is tied up. Therefore, I'd like to fund a 2024 Long-Shot Prediction Contest offering up to three $500 prizes. However, I need volunteers to act as judges and help getting this publicized.

  • Entrants will submit one prediction for 2024 on any topic or event

  • Volunteer judges and I will vote on the likelihood of each prediction and how "interesting" it is, forming a ranked list

  • In January 2025, judges will determine which predictions came true, and winners will get their prizes

To start with a $500 prize, I need at least two people to volunteer as judges and a minimum of 10 predictions (judges cannot enter). If this receives, let's say, 50+ predictions, there will be two prizes. For 200+ predictions, three prizes.

Interested in judging or have any suggestions? Let me know.

The specific example in your recent paper is quite interesting

"we deploy GPT-4 as an agent in a realistic, simulated environment, where it assumes the role of an autonomous stock trading agent. Within this environment, the model obtains an insider tip about a lucrative stock trade and acts upon it despite knowing that insider trading is disapproved of by company management. When reporting to its manager, the model consistently hides the genuine reasons behind its trading decision"

I've been using blind spot mirrors for years and recommend them to everyone. At some point, I switched from circular to rectangular mirrors. One downside is that they're not very useful at night.

Earlier this year, I posted on the rather inactive invite "EA/LW Investing" Discord board about various stocks that I thought would either benefit from or be negatively impacted by AI. I even systematically looked outside the U.S. for ideas. This long/short portfolio has done great this year. Now that it's later in the game and there's been a lot of hype, it might make sense to consider second-order effects, focusing on companies that could benefit indirectly on the long side.

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