lennart

Summary * We are a new research organization working on investigating trends in Machine Learning and forecasting the development of Transformative Artificial Intelligence * This work is done in close collaboration with other organizations, like Rethink Priorities, Open Philanthropy, and MIT CSAIL * We will be hiring for 2-4 full-time...

Summary This post is authored by Jeffrey Ladish, who works on the security team at Anthropic, and Lennart Heim, who works on AI Governance with GovAI (more about us at the end). The views in the post are our own and do not speak for Anthropic or GovAI. This post...

This is a slightly modified version of Appendix E from our paper "Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning". You can find the summary here and the complete paper here. After sharing our updated compute trends analysis a common question was: "So how are your findings different from OpenAI’s...

Summary Using our dataset of milestone Machine Learning models, and our recent analysis of compute trends in ML, we project forward 70 years worth of trends in the amount of compute used to train Machine Learning models. Our simulations account for (a) uncertainty in estimates of the growth rates in...

https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05924 What do you need to develop advanced Machine Learning systems? Leading companies don’t know. But they are very interested in figuring it out. They dream of replacing all these pesky workers with reliable machines who take no leave and have no morale issues. So when they heard that throwing...

by Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Marius Hobbhahn, Tamay Besiroglu, and Anson Ho You can find the complete article here. We provide a short summary below. In short: To estimate the compute used to train a Deep Learning model we can either: 1) directly count the number of operations needed or...

Cross-posted here on the EA Forum. Transformative AI and Compute - A holistic approach - Part 4 out of 4 This is the Appendix (part four) of the series Transformative AI and Compute - A holistic approach. You can find the sequence here and the summary here. This appendix attempts...