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I think one factor that was overlooked as a potential for conflict is the developments by Russia and the ongoing push by China to be involved in the Arctic. As you mentioned they are interested in material collection and with the melting ice caps this unleashes a plentiful lot, along with new shipping routes. They have been granted an observer seat on the arctic council and with more military activity in the north with Russia and the rest of the arctic powers, it is not far off that this area will become more engaged here.