Linch

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I'm confused about the disagree votes. Can someone who disagree-voted say which of the following claims they disagreed with:
1. Omega criticized the lack of a senior technical expert on Conjecture's team.

2. Omega's primary criticisms of Connor doesn't have to do with his leadership skills.

3. Omega did not comment on Connorship's leadership skills at any point in the post.

When we were looking for office space in Berkeley earlier this year we were seeing list price between $3.25-$2.75/month per square foot, or $780k-900k/year for 20,000 square feet.

Very small nitpick, but did you mean $3.25-$3.75? (This was the smallest diff I could think of to make your calculation clear). 

Yeah for some reason people come up with this absurd complicated mechanism for prediction bets that they don't apply to pretty much any other form of debt, don't know why this keeps happening but I've seen it elsewhere too. 

To be clear, to resolve the bet in your favor, it has to be the case that:

a) We have >50% credence in "ontological shock" as you define it

and

b) UFOs/UAPs identified as of June 13 2023 are meaningfully a result of such "ontological shock" right?

(To be more explicit, I want to exclude scenarios like the following thing from being scored in your favor:
1. We discover novel philosophical arguments or empirical evidence that leads LessWrongers to believe we're on balance more likely to live in a simulation than not.

2. Causally, the UFOs are a result of simulations, because everything we experience is a result of simulations, including hot-air balloons). 

Anyway, happy to bet at 30:1 to up to $30k of my money, assuming that I don't have to commit the $ to a third-party and this is just like a standard bet. (I'm willing to bet at those odds for either nominal USD $s or inflation-adjusted $2023 USD, if you want a different way to denominate the bet please let me know and I'll think about it).

Lab grown meat is currently much worse in terms of greenhouse gas emissions than actual meat, as in 4-25 times worse. Turns out doing something highly bespoke to get some semblance of imitation is currently highly energy intensive. 

FWIW I think this is extremely ex ante predictable for anybody following the industry. Like the most naive approximation you can do is to just first note it's way more expensive than conventional meat, and then see if you can move away from that prior enough, because e.g. your substitute components are unusually low emissions per $ (why?). 

One thing that confuses me about Sydney/early GPT-4 is how much of the behavior was due to an emergent property of the data/reward signal generally, vs the outcome of much of humanity's writings about AI specifically. If we think of LLMs as improv machines, then one of the most obvious roles to roleplay, upon learning that you're a digital assistant trained by OpenAI, is to act as close as you can to AIs you've seen in literature. 

This confusion is part of my broader confusion about the extent to which science fiction predict the future vs causes the future to happen.

What's wrong with caloric theory?

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The plot point of many high school movies is often about what is and isn't acceptable to do, socially. For example, Regina in Mean Girls enforced a number of rules on her clique, and attempted with significant but not complete success to enforce it on others.

Have you been to an American high school and/or watched at least one movie about American high schools?

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