lincolnquirk

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Raemon's Shortform

I'm not Ray, but I'll take a stab --

The founder has a complete vision for the community/meetup/company/etc. They were able to design a thing that (as long as they continue putting in energy) is engaging, and they instinctively know how to change it so that it continues being great for participants.

The first successor has an incomplete, operational/keep-things-running-the-way-they-were type vision. They cargo-cult whatever the founder was doing. They don't have enough vision to understand the 'why' behind all the decisions. But putting your finger on their precise blind spot is quite hard. It's their "fault" (to the extent that we can blame anyone) that things go off the rails, but their bad decision-making doesn't actually have short term impacts that anyone can see. Instead, the impacts come all at once, once they disappear, and there becomes common knowledge that it was a house of cards the whole time.

(or something. my models are fairly imprecise on this.)

Anyway, why did the founder get fooled into anointing the first successor even though they don't have the skills to continue the thing? My guess is that there's a fairly strong selection effect for founders combined with "market fit" -- founders who fail to reach this resonant frequency don't pick successors, they just fail. Whatever made them great at building this particular community doesn't translate into skills at picking a successor, and that resonance may not happen to exist in any other person. Another founder-quality person would not necessarily have resonated with the existing community's frequency, so there could also be an anti-selection effect there.

What are your greatest one-shot life improvements?

I didn’t do it any more. I forgot about it next time I showered.

Peekskill Lyme Incidence

Sorry I don’t have good answers:

  1. I don’t think so, typically you’re “cured” if you get antibiotics early on and don’t see any more symptoms
  2. diagnosis was only from the characteristic “ring” rash around bite site. The nurse said that it was the “best” (clearest example) of one she had ever seen
  3. Not concerned, given i caught it quickly and haven’t seen any other symptoms
Deliberately Vague Language is Bullshit

This is pointing in a good direction, but I think the post could benefit from some more concrete examples.

MIRI location optimization (and related topics) discussion

I'm very curious what kind of "campus" type properties you're thinking of!

A YC-backed nonprofit, https://www.degreesoffreedom.org/, bought a fully functional campus in Vermont last year (Marlboro College). https://vtdigger.org/2020/07/23/sale-of-marlboro-college-campus-finalized/ -- for $1.75M, which seems like a steal to me (although later revelations suggest this might not have been the full price paid). Is this the kind of thing you were imagining?

(interesting side note: One of the founders, Seth Andrews, appears to have just last month been arrested for financial crimes. https://vtdigger.org/2021/04/27/feds-accuse-seth-andrew-whose-nonprofit-purchased-marlboro-college-campus-of-stealing-over-200000/ and more financial details here https://vermontbiz.com/news/2021/may/05/marlboro-whats-next)

Peekskill Lyme Incidence

I was diagnosed with Lyme disease last October. I have been hiking a decent amount (1-2 times per week) in New Hampshire, and I am on pace for 3-4 times a year finding a tick on me (although this spring I've already found three, it's really bad this year). Fortunately, my tick bite site was easy to observe, I noticed the ring rash and went to the doc, they gave me antibiotics and I had no other effects that I noticed. Dunno if this helps anyone.

I'm from a parallel Earth with much higher coordination: AMA

Thanks very much for bringing this over from Facebook!

The Meaning Crisis

When it says "Sunday at 3:00 PM" on my screen, it is not obvious whether it is converting to local time for me (I assume it is but I don't remember telling LW what my time zone was). I think the simplest "fix" is just to have your date/time renderer also render the timezone it is using.

Rationalism before the Sequences

Hmm, maybe a 2. I didn’t know you had read the Sequences, but it seems like the sort of thing that would appeal to you based on the writing in Dancing, etc.

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