Liron

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Actually, the only time I know they cashed in early was selling half their Coinbase shares at the direct listing after holding for 7 years.

Their racket was to be the #1 crypto fund with the most assets under management ($7.6B total) so that they can collect the most management fees (probably about $1B total). It's great business for a16z to be in the sector-leader AUM game even when the sector makes no logical sense.

I'm just saying Marc's reputation for publicly making logically-flimsy arguments and not updating on evidence should be considered when he enters a new area of discourse.

I encourage you to look into his firm's Web3 claims and the reasoning behind them. My sibling comment has one link that is particularly egregious and recent. Here's another badly-reasoned Web3 argument made by his partner, which implies Marc's endorsement, and the time his firm invested over $100M in an obvious Ponzi scheme.

My #1 and #2 are in a separate video Marc made after the post Zvi referred to, but ya, could fall under the "bizarrely poor arguments" Zvi is trying to explain.

My #3 and his firm's various statements about Web3 in the last couple years, like this recent gaslighting, are additional examples of bizarrely poor arguments in an unrelated field.

If we don't come in with an a-priori belief that Marc is an honest or capable reasoner, there's less confusion for Zvi to explain.

I’ve personally been saying “AI Doom” as the topic identifier since it’s clear and catchy and won’t be confused with smaller issues.

Great post! Agree with everything. You came at some points from a unique angle. I especially appreciate the insight of "most of the useful steering work of a system comes from the very last bits of glue code".

Bravo.

Which 2+ outcomes from the list do you think are most likely to lead to your loss?

It seems from your link like CFAR has taken responsibility, taken corrective action, and states how they’ll do everything in their power to avoid a similar abuse incident in the future.

I think in general the way to deal with abuse situations within an organization is to identify which authority should be taking appropriate disciplinary action regarding the abuser’s role and privileges. A failure to act there, like CFAR’s admitted process failure that they later corrected, would be concerning if we thought it was still happening.

If every abuse is being properly disciplined by the relevant organization, and the rate of abuse isn’t high compared to the base rate in the non-rationalist population, then the current situation isn’t a crisis - even if some instances of abuse unfortunately involve the perpetrator referencing rationality or EA concepts.

Great post! I agree with this analogy.

I think the fire stands for value creation. My Lean MVP Flowchart post advises to always orient your strategy about what it'll take to double the size of your current value creation. Paul Graham's Do Things That Don't Scale is a coarse-grained version of this advice, pointing out that doubling a small fire is qualitatively different from doubling a large fire.

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