A lot of this depends on how I approach it: is this something I should work on after the kids go to bed, when I typically write blog posts? Or should I consider trying to go part-time at work, take leave, or quit? I haven't yet talked to people at work about this, but I would lean towards taking leave or going part time: if this is worth doing it's probably worth focusing on. That I think what I'm currently doing is valuable, though, means that there's a higher bar than just "does this seem like a good book to exist."

I wonder if it would make sense to write it as a series of blog posts (like the sequences, HPMOR, and "Wait But Why Year One: We finally figured out how to put a blog onto an e-reader"), at least for the first few chapters.

It seems it could provide the usual advantages of agile development, and get you some quick (self-)feedback in a lower-stakes environment (even though as you mention this has many downsides).

As someone who's trying a bit of community building, I would love more books, and the topics you are suggesting are super interesting in terms of helping many people do more good.

Thank you for sharing this, I was wondering about your perspective on these topics.

I am really curious about the intended counterfactual of this move. My understanding is that the organizations that were using the office raised funds for a new office in a few weeks (from the same funding pool that funds Lightcone), so their work will continue in a similar way.

Is the main goal to have Lightcone focus more on the Rose Garden Inn? What are your plans there, do you have projects in mind for "slowing down AI progress, pivotal acts, intelligence enhancement, etc."? Anything people can help with?

https://youtu.be/gA1sNLL6yg4?t=5006 Interesting that it seems like he's leaving MIRI

See https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/sleeping-beauty-paradox for LessWrong posts on this problem from the past 14 years

5x5 is way too tiny, do you play with a komi of 24 or do you use it mostly for teaching new players?

Edit: https://www.jefftk.com/p/simple-5x5-go it seems both, nevermind

Someone on Twitter mentioned slave owners similarly "not just trading" with slaves who could talk. I think it's a better analogy than factory farmed animals.

Does what we do to factory farmed animals count as "trading" feed and shelter in exchange of meat, eggs and diary?

I loved the link to the "Resisted Technological Temptations Project", for a bunch of examples of resisted/slowed technologies that are not "eating sand", and have an enormous upside: https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:start

• GMOs, in some countries
• Nuclear power, in some countries
• Genetic engineering of humans
• Geoengineering, many actors
• Chlorofluorocarbons, many actors, 1985-present
• Human challenge trials
• Dietary restrictions, in most (all?) human cultures [restrict much more than sand, often quite good stuff!]

I would tentatively add:

• organ donor markets (at least for kidneys)
• drug development in general (see all of Scott's posts on the FDA slowing things down, I would love to see an AIA slowing things down)

But weightlifting and working longer hours would still help in both explore and exploit, right?

Why do you get the impression that Adderall and similar don't help with exploring for 50 hours a week? e.g. Erdos explored quite a lot

which I thought was a total waste and if that was what they were going to do they should have donated to LTFF in the first place

I don't understand what was wasted. Do you estimate the costs of running the lottery to be significant?

I don't think there are any extra financial transactions, if you would donate from the same platform in both the lottery and non-lottery cases. (In both cases you donate to EA funds / GWWC, and they then donate it to the org, so 2 transactions)