(From the vast heaps of discarded material from my 2024 attempts at drafts for "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies".)

Welcome to today's quiz show: Can a superintelligence do THAT?

With us today we have our contestants: Msr. Soberskeptic and Msr. Oldhand!

Soberskeptic: "I'd just like to say, however this quiz show ends up being judged, I will consider that judgment to be objectively ridiculous -- there's no way anyone can know what a superintelligence could do, in advance of empirical observation. So I'm just here to say what I consider to be true, and I suppose these credulous fools will mark me down as wrong every time I say 'No it can't'. In the unlikely event they decide I've won anything, good for them and I'll be grateful for whichever prize. Game-show money isn't enough to get me to lie."

A very reasonable attitude, Msr. Soberskeptic! You'll shortly see how we handle that dilemma! And you, Msr. Oldhand?

Oldhand: "Don't worry, Sober! I'll let our hosts know if they've gotten any of the answers wrong."

Also a very reasonable attitude! Now for our first question:

Suppose a digital device contains a secret encryption key that it is repeatedly using to sign messages. Also, this device has a power LED.

Could a superintelligence point a nearby video camera at the device, and read off the encryption key, by looking at the power LED?

Soberskeptic: "Pffft. Obviously not. How would that even work?"

Oldhand: "Ah, I perceive you are not a computer security expert! Many particular steps in encryption draw slightly varying amounts of electrical power to the processor, in a way that correlates to exact features of the secret key. So the power LED, if it's connected directly to the electrical circuit powering the processor, might get a tiny bit dimmer. I'll say... ten percent probability that a superintelligence can do that with a randomly selected electronic device that has a secret key and a power light."

Soberskeptic: "And now they're going to mark me down, but seriously, give me a break here, audience. Any fluctuations like that would be too tiny to pick up with a nearby video camera. Fluctuations like that would be too fast to pick up at the 60-frames-per-second measuring speed of a video camera. ...And now, they're going to say something stupid about how a superintelligence could hack into the factory and deliberately introduce a design flaw into the...

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