Lyrongolem

Glad you enjoyed!

Let me send a PM regarding a dialogue...

Replying toDefense Against The Dark Arts: An Introduction

But point 3 was already a counterfactual by your own formulation of it.

Well, no, it's not. Because I am speaking about future events (ie: should we give aid or not), not past events.

I suppose that if you are convinced that Ukraine is going to win, then a marginal increase in aid is expected to shorten the war, but there is no reason to suspect that proponents of point 3 mean are referring to marginal adjustments in the amount of help

I'm not. Current battlefield conditions suggest that the war will be a protracted stalemate favoring Russia absent strategically meaningful aid. And by strategically meaningful I mean either providing capabilities that allow retaking of... (read more)

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Replying toDefense Against The Dark Arts: An Introduction

I understand how you use the terms, but my point is that Vivek does not in fact demonstrate the information gap you impute to him. I am confident he would be easily able to address your objections.

Ok. Let me address this then.

The fact that the war has persisted for so long seems sufficient proof that, in the absence of the aid, Ukraine would have quickly surrendered or at worst suffered a quick defeat. In either case, the war would have been shorter. Point 3 is unambiguously correct, and even most people on your side of the issue would agree with that (ie. they believe that a large part of the reason Ukraine

... (read 738 more words →)

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Replying toThe Dark Arts

Yes. This analysis primarily applies to low information environments (like the lay circuits I participated in). I would not use this on for example, the national circuit.

Replying toDefense Against The Dark Arts: An Introduction

Sort of, but you're missing my main point, which is simply that what Vivek did is not actually dark arts, and that what you are doing is. His arguments, as you summarised them into bullet points, are topical and in good faith. They are at worst erroneous and not an example of bullshitting.

Ah, ok. Allow me a clarification then.

In typical terms, ultra-BS is lying. (as in, you know you are wrong and speak as if you're right anyways). In my view, however, there's also an extension to that. If you are aware that you don't have knowledge on a topic and make wild assertions anyhow to support a narrative (say, if I... (read 414 more words →)

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Replying toDefense Against The Dark Arts: An Introduction

Have you given even a moment's thought to what Vivek might say in response to your objections? I get the impression that you haven't, and that you know essentially nothing about the views of the opposing side on this issue.

Well... yes. It's essentially covered by what I went over. In my view at least, me and Vivek have a narrative disagreement, as opposed to a dispute over a single set or series of facts. In any case, I imagine the points of contest would be

The benefit of Ukraine aid for US foreign policy
The costs imposed on the US
Moral concerns with more vague ideas like 'supporting democracy'

There's many rebuttals I could foresee him... (read more)

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Replying toThe Dark Arts

Mhm, yes! Of course.

So, this may seem surprising, but I'd consider Dark Arts to be a negligible part of me being undefeated. At least, in the sense that I could've easily used legitimate arguments and rebuttals instead to the same effect.

As you might already know, lay judges tend to judge far more based off speaking skill, confidence, body language, and factors other than the actual content of the argument. In that sense being the better debater usually gets you a win, regardless of the content of your argument, since the judge can't follow anything except for the most apparent 'wins' and 'losses' on either side. All else being equal (and in debate,... (read more)

Replying toThe Dark Arts

Hm? Is it? Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but in my experience flow judges (who tend to be debaters) tend to grade more on the quality of the arguments as opposed to the quality of the evidence. If you raise a sound rebuttal to a good argument it doesn't score, but if you fail to rebut a bad argument it's still points in your favor.

Is it different in college?

Replying toThe Dark Arts

Mhm, yes

I think society has a long way to go before we reach workable consensus on important issues again.

That said, while I don't have an eye on solutions, I do believe I can elaborate a bit on what caused the problem, in ways I don't usually see discussed in public discourse. But that's a separate topic for a separate post, in my view. I'm completely open to continuing this conversation within private messages if you like though.

Lyrongolem

Epistemic status: I’m a non expert analyzing personal anecdotes and lower level political issues, take with a grain of salt.

Edit: The post is specifically about the Dark Arts as we see them in politics, not in intra or interpersonal relations. Thank you AnniePosting for recommending this specification.

Context

(for those who haven’t read, I highly recommend checking out my dialogue with lsusr linked above, it’s a relatively short read and introduces some important context to what I’m about to go over. But I will provide a shorter summary in this post just in case.)

Previously in the Dark Arts dialogue, I introduced some basic information on my encounters with the Dark Arts in public forum... (read 5813 more words →)

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