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The Parable of the Dagger

Interestingly enough, I just mapped this whole problem out carefully in a spreadsheet, and it appears to agree with zzz2. I'll have to check it now that I've seen your comment.

Applause Lights

I couldn't resist adding another link as an example of a speech that seems to consist almost entirely of applause lights. This one is vintage Peter Sellers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxBtGuu9BVE

The Cognitive Science of Rationality

Perhaps what people have in mind when they say that are betting odds. If you bet money on an unlikely event then the odds are quoted with the high number (your reward if the event occurs) first, which seems sensible from an advertising perspective.

Welcome to Less Wrong! (2012)

I like this experiment! Maybe I'll do something similar myself; I'll be interested to hear how it turns out for you.

One of the major difficulties I have with the way my mind works is that although it's possible to identify the causal link between actions taken now and the results they bring about in the long-term future, unfortunately it's very hard to keep this connection in the forefront of the mind and take daily actions that are motivated by it. In other words, the problem of delayed gratification (I haven't read the Sequences yet but I think there's something in there about that). Have you ever taken a look at David Allen's GTD system? I've found it useful because it prescribes a cycle of doing/reviewing, which helps keep you on track even when the long-term objectives may be shifting.

Your reference to "work-related social media" is telling. I'm beginning to work in media music where networking is vitally important, and I am finding that the rationalisation of "it's important for work" significantly exacerbates the distraction caused by the temptation of such things as Facebook.

Welcome to Less Wrong! (2012)

Greetings from Southampton, UK.

Male, 46, Maths graduate, software developer, career in transitional state (moving into music composition - slowly!).

Until about the age of 30 I didn't really make an effort to identify my own biases and irrational beliefs, and I had a lot of unsupported beliefs in my mind. I've been gradually correcting this through online reading and thinking, but I feel that until recently I lacked one of the essential elements of wisdom: clarity of focus. I'm hoping to learn that now.

Since I was divorced in 2004, I've increasingly become someone who would self-identify as a Transhumanist, and I used to hang out with a H+ group in London for a while (UKTA).

I found LW very recently, when I was researching an online probability puzzle and I needed to refresh my memory on the Bayesian approach. I now regard this as a very happy accident and I look forward to a pleasant few months of digging deeply into LW and teaching myself to become as rational as possible.

I gobbled up HP:MoR in just a few days, losing significant sleep while doing so: it's extremely addictive :) I've not read the sequences yet but they look interesting, and it strikes me that the "titles, then summaries, then contents" approach to library conquest mentioned in the fanfic would be a good idea in this context.

Happy to be here!