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Covid 11/11: Winter and Effective Treatments Are Coming

[Vaccinations graphs]

Did you mean to fill this in before posting?

Is there a clearly laid-out write-up of the case to drop Covid precautions?

I notice this one came out in May (and the comments are from then too). It would be nice to see a post along these lines that's post-Delta.

Indoor dancing is safe enough

I think you're missing another big factor here: being within 3 feet of a single person for 2 hours is VERY different from being within 3 feet of a different single person, every 5 minutes, for 2 hours. I believe microCOVID actually maxes out the risk of catching COVID from a single person in less than that amount of time.

Covid 10/21: Rogan vs. Gupta

Wow. I found this hard to believe so I looked it up, and indeed:

Mental health conditions

Having mood disorders, including depression, and schizophrenia spectrum disorders can make you more likely to get severely ill from COVID-19.

Shoulder Advisors 101

It's also important to avoid bad shoulder advisors. I've spent several years trying to reduce the influence of miniature copies of abusive family members on my thinking.

EDIT: The most effective counter I've found for this is to 1) Notice that the thought I just had is actually coming from a bad source, 2) Remind myself that that person wanted me to believe/act that way for selfish and narcissistic reasons, and I shouldn't take their advice for the same reason I wouldn't take moral suggestions from people who go around kicking puppies.

Is there a beeminder without the punishment?
Answer by maiaSep 14, 20213

Beeminder has a mode that lets you have a goal with no punishment. You have to pay for their highest-tier monthly subscription, though ($24/mo IIRC).

MIRI location optimization (and related topics) discussion

+1, I had a similar experience when living upstate in a place that was "an hour+". I did visit the city a few times, but it was a pretty big hassle. Definitely try out the exact commute before drawing conclusions.

Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold

Fair. I was also debating between 5-10%.

I have some inside information on this as an ex-Alphabet employee; I have a strong impression that execs do not want to do this. Employees were clamoring for a policy statement on this for months and they hemmed, hawed, dodged the question, delayed for months, and ultimately refused.

New strains could delay things more, but I would be surprised if they don't ultimately make people go back to the office as soon as they reasonably can. Presence in Mountain View or occasionally other offices is one of the few places where employees really want something and Alphabet execs, historically, have drawn a fairly hard line that they can't have it.

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