marek_sklenka

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marek_sklenka

Replying toAnalysis of a Secret Hitler Scenario

marek_sklenka6y

Analysis of a Secret Hitler Scenario

I agree with the qualitative analysis and the conclusion but I got different answers when I did the same calculations.

So given that Marek had accused Sam that meant that Marek was a liberal with probability 75%.

I think the correct probability here is 2/3, not 75%.

P (M a r e k l i b e r a l | a c c u s e) = \frac{P (a c c u s e | M a r e k l i b e r a l) \times P (M a r e k l i b e r a l)}{P (a c c u s e)} = \frac{50 % \times 50 %}{37.5 %} = \frac{2}{3}

P(accuse)=37.5% because if I am liberal I only accuse Sam if he is fascist (50% of the time) and if I am fascist I accuse only when I am bold and Sam is liberal (25% of the time).

Imagine 100 games are played. Sam gets accused in 37.5 games. Marek is liberal in 25 of those games.

I had a belief that Marek

marek_sklenka6y

Analysis of a Secret Hitler Scenario

Another thing to consider is that fascists sometimes intentionally pass a liberal policy to confuse others. This is especially true of Hitler who wants to appear liberal so that he can later be elected chancellor.

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

marek_sklenka

marek_sklenka

marek_sklenka

marek_sklenka