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Martin Gerdes

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Likelihood calculation with duobels

The post An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes's Theorem explains that using Bayesian reasoning we can much better see how likely something is (by calculating conditional probabilities), and thus update our own beliefs as efficiently as possible. However, the essay shows us how to calculate those probabilities using lots of math...

Oct 1, 20244

Martin Gerdes

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Martin Gerdes

Likelihood calculation with duobels

The post An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes's Theorem explains that using Bayesian reasoning we can much better see how likely something is (by calculating conditional probabilities), and thus update our own beliefs as efficiently as possible. However, the essay shows us how to calculate those probabilities using lots of math...

Oct 1, 20244

Likelihood calculation with duobels

Martin Gerdes

1y

The post An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes's Theorem explains that using Bayesian reasoning we can much better see how likely something is (by calculating conditional probabilities), and thus update our own beliefs as efficiently as possible.
However, the essay shows us how to calculate those probabilities using lots of math (duh!). Which is fine if you just want to grasp the concept, or need to evaluate a medical study or something.

But what about applying it in our daily lives? Nobody has time for divisions while evaluating evidence...
The article gives 2 hints to help. The first using odds ratios, the second using decibels. But odds ratios keep getting multiplied and thus quickly get unwieldy,... (read 1717 more words →)

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Martin Gerdes

Martin Gerdes

Martin Gerdes

Likelihood calculation with duobels

Martin Gerdes

Martin Gerdes

Martin Gerdes

Likelihood calculation with duobels