masasin

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How the Moderna vaccine works, and a note about mRNA vaccines

Thanks! I modified the post. Could you take a look?

A breakdown of priors and posteriors - an example from medicine

You're completely right here. I meant odds of 3:1 in general, as opposed to when they're a complement. (Also, 90 + 30 is more than 100%.) I'll edit it.

It's only 75% and 25% when the sum of probabilities is 100%, but O(red car:green car) can be 3:1 when 60% of cars are red and 20% are green, or when 3% of cars are red and 1% are green. The remainder are different colours.

The different kinds of confidence

Understood. It might indeed be useful instrumentally. That being said, I'm not sure how I would be able to display a different confidence level than I felt without lying (I don't lie). Is it something you say, or is it just your posture etc? Or is there something else?

The different kinds of confidence

In the context of this post, your confidence in your absolute skill is the same.

When interviewing, you're comparing yourself to people who have applied (the fact that you got an interview indicates that you might be more suitable than most of the applicants), and maybe to the other interviewees too.

When you start the new job, on the other hand, your relative skill is probably about the same, but your instrumental skill is much lower than the other employees' because you don't know the systems/tools/jargon that the company uses. You'd need to learn new things, ask questions, and get feedback to get up to speed.