New type of LLM psychosis: "LLM type 2 bipolatity"
In December I had very high levels of anxiety (started taking meds, difficulty sleeping) as part of the Claude Code moment. Sort of depression
Now I am having difficulty sleeping because I want to keep programming with ClawdBot, eating badly, and I unilateraly stopped taking the anxiety medication. Sort of mania.
Let's if this bipolarity disorder continues and see what my doctor thinks.
Why you think Anthropic has low odds of succeeding?
I have less confidence than most here in how much automated AI researchers will accelerate the takeoff. The difficulty of improving time horizons seem like a big data & compute problem. And it is also not clear how much you'll be able to iterate in other vectors.
But! I am relatively more confident that for a given level of intelligence, automated AI researchers will be brutal in optimizing the cost to run it. We should expect an acceleration of the price of intelligence. See NanoGPT and PostTrainBench.
This could also be a way the bubble pops. At some point, running more expensive models stop making economic sense for a given task.
Imagine if by Summer 2028 we can run a Claude Opus 6-level model in your own Mac. Will Claude Opus 7 be that much better if you're not doing advanced research? What about Summer 2029?
No wonder we are hearing about the possibility of a 2026 Anthropic IPO.
Of course being right is better than being wrong. Ideally he should know the exact date of the arrival of the Superintelligence and organize finances for that.
But it seems to me that he has the best shot of creating the AI god with his current process.
1Altman doesn't own equity in OpenAI and he's doing it for the glory. He genuinely believes he might give birth to the AI god. Why should he do anything different, from his vantage point
I am fairly confident That GPT-5.1, which I'm confident is a check-out of GPT-4o, has more than 60% of its training flops in post-training.
If openai created another GPT-4 pre train, they'd post-train it all over again.
Of course they'll do it. But just not that often. Likely once a year or something like that.
1Many many things in the world are explained by society having an unconscious visceral forecast of AGI timelines in the late 2020s. Many actors behaviors make more sense if you assume they have late 2020s timelines.
- Why the end of neoliberalism and the post-war world? Late 2020s timelines. They understand having raw power will be relatively more important than having non-zero-sum relationship with your allies and trading partners.
- Why the 2nd Cold War? Late 2020s timelines. U.S. and China know that being ahead during the late 2020s probably means being ahead forever.
- Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Late 2020s timelines. Russia knows they couldn't do it later.
- Why Gen Z isn't obsessed with work but they are obsessed with health and positional goods? Late 2020s timelines. They want to be healthy to await the arrival of the cure of aging and know they won't have a long career.
- Why politics has become more raw, polarized, with each side thinking losing is the end of the world? They want their side in power during the 2020s.
- Why long-term interest rates bottomed the same month GPT-3 launched? Late 2020s timelines (ok, this is a joke)
- Why the arrival of crypto and gambling culture and ticket prize (e.g.: creator and only fans and hustlers). Late 2020s timelines.
- Why are governments running big fiscal deficts with no end in sight? Late 2020s timelines.
This is a bit "wtf happened in 1971?" I mean, the Intel 4004 was launched in 1971, the release of the first microprocessor. And I think what explains this is that this is all part of the same trend of Moore's Law pushing for automation, just that we are getting to the part of the exponential where the numbers get insane.
1
Meta has basically shut down FAIR after their Llama 4 fiasco, fired the lead and Yann, and they are starting again by creating a new lab called Meta Superintelligence Labs. The guys Alexander Wang has assembled STARTED working toghether like during the summer.