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Epistemic status This is an overview of an emerging topic and some considerations to weigh when evaluating this topic. While we are not certain that the dynamics we outline are significant, it seems plausible that they are based on the empirical and theoretical reasons we lay out. We are not...
Pascal’s wager / Pascal’s mugging is a situation in which small probabilities of large amounts of (dis)value[1] result in decisions which maximize expected utility, but which seem intuitively absurd. While many people have debated the rational response to Pascal’s muggings, there has been comparatively little discussion of principled thresholds of...
Epistemic Status The math seems pretty clear and simple. This was something I nerd-sniped myself into writing over a relatively short period of time, and there are ways this could be more detailed, and there is room for more in-depth analysis building on this, but I just want to get...
Epistemic status: These are preliminary notes on a topic that I hope to more thoroughly explore in the future. I would estimate the probability of the scenario that I’m describing as less than 50% but still significant enough to be worth discussing. Introduction A commonly suggested policy solution to automation-driven...
When communicating about existential risks from AI misalignment, is it more important to focus on policymakers/experts/other influential decisionmakers or to try to get the public at large to care about this issue?[1] I lean towards it being overall more important to communicate to policymakers/experts rather than the public. However, it...
Epistemic status These are my cursory thoughts on this topic after having read about it over a few days and conversed with some other people. I still have high uncertainty and am raising questions that may address some uncertainties. Content warning Discussion of risks of astronomical suffering[1] Why focus on...