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Recent Comments

The diagram thing is weird, I explicitly added it back in when I posted.

Regardless, I somehow ended up posting this on the wrong account, reposted in the correct account.

The drafting software I was using represented headings that way (as I said this wasn't written on LW). I've fixed the headings.

I think this is actually a general pattern that happens in most knowledge worker careers, not only late in careers. Certainly when I was a career coach one of the key things I did to help people move up in their careers was to help them move a level up in their thinking.

I think one of the reasons ...(read more)

There are people who have done this in a variety of fields but they seem to be largely niche. One reason that this may be is that most medicine literally has magic pills that allow you to apply each of the solutions, whereas most other effective process models require a deep understanding of each st...(read more)

> Boyd wrote about the OODA loop in his late 40's but never seemed to make the next meta level jump up to trying to instill the kind of reasoning that generated the OODA loop (or EM theory for that matter) pedagogically.

This is exactly what he did with "The Discourse on Winning and Losing"

Boyd i...(read more)

There seems to be a weird need in this community to over argue obvious conclusions.

This whole post seems to boil down to:

1. You are altruistic and smart. 2. You want more altruistic and smart people. 3. Therefore, you should propagate your genes.

Similar to the recent "Dragon Army Baracks", wh...(read more)

Are you tracking your calibration with something like prediction book? You may be generally calibrated And this could have just been an instance of a low probability event happening