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This is a linkpost to an article by Ege Erdil and I that we wrote to explain an important perspective that we share regarding AI automation. I'll quote the introduction: > A popular view about the future impact of AI on the economy is that it will be primarily mediated...
There is a view I’ve encountered somewhat often,[1] which can be summarized as follows: After the widespread deployment of advanced AGI, assuming humanity survives, material scarcity will largely disappear. Everyone will have sufficient access to necessities like food, housing, and other basic resources. Therefore, the only scarce resource remaining will...
To many people, the land value tax (LVT) has earned the reputation of being the "perfect tax." In theory, it achieves a rare trifecta: generating government revenue without causing deadweight loss, incentivizing the productive development of land by discouraging unproductive speculation, and disproportionately taxing the wealthy, who tend to own...
Richard Ngo recently wrote, > Instead of analyzing whether AI takeoff will be “fast” or “slow”, I now prefer to think about the spectrum from concentrated takeoff (within one organization in one country) to distributed takeoff (involving many organizations and countries). I agree that this element of AI takeoff is...
I personally dislike most AI risk analogies that I've seen people use. While I think analogies can be helpful for explaining concepts to people and illustrating mental pictures, I think they are frequently misused, and often harmful. At the root of the problem is that analogies are consistently mistaken for,...
A common theme implicit in many AI risk stories has been that broader society will either fail to anticipate the risks of AI until it is too late, or do little to address those risks in a serious manner. In my opinion, there are now clear signs that this assumption...
The performance of machine learning models is closely related to their amount of training data, compute, and number of parameters. At Epoch, we’re investigating the key inputs that enable today’s AIs to reach new heights. Our recently expanded Parameter, Compute and Data Trends database traces these details for hundreds of...