Toby Ord’s ‘The Precipice’ is published!
[x-posted from EA Forum] The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity is out today. I’ve been working on the book with Toby for the past 18 months, and I’m excited for everyone to read it. I think it has the potential to make a profound difference to the...
Mar 8, 202054
Big thanks to Amanda, Owain, and others at Ought for their work on this!
My overall forecast is pretty low confidence — particularly with respect to the time parameter.
Snapshot is here: https://elicit.ought.org/builder/uIF9O5fIp (Please ignore any other snapshots in my name, which were submitted in error)
My calculations are in this spreadsheet