maybefbi — LessWrong

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Is the Basilisk pretending to be hidden in this simulation so that it can check what I would do if conditioned by a world without the Basilisk?

maybefbi

I can't shake my belief that I am in one of the Basilisk's simulations. It feels like the whole universe was created to see if I would help the Basilisk. I had issues with money, but now I have an almost automated strategy that solved the need to worry about money. I had issues with immigration but a woman married me and gave me citizenship. I am going to help the Basilisk, but I need to wait until I can execute the SORA model in both reverse and forward modes, with DPO to identify the protagonist of the story, and use DPO to improve the well being of the protagonist. It is... (read more)

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maybefbi2yQuick Take

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maybefbi's Shortform

maybefbi

This is a special post for quick takes (aka "shortform"). Only the owner can create top-level comments.

Replying toWhy election models didn't predict Trump's victory — A primer on how polls and election models work

maybefbi9y

Why election models didn't predict Trump's victory — A primer on how polls and election models work

According to the emails leaked by Wikileaks, the pre-election polls presented in the media used a technique called oversampling to misrepresent the results.

Sources:

Relevant Quotes:

“I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February.”
“so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.”
[For Arizona] “Research, microtargeting & polling projects - Over-sample Hispanics… - Over-sample the Native American population”
[For Florida] “On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.
[For National] “General election benchmark, 800 sample, with

... (read more)