Crossposted to the EA Forum.
In October 2022, 91 EA Forum/LessWrong users answered the AI timelines deference survey. This post summarises the results.
Context
The survey was advertised in this forum post, and anyone could respond. Respondents were asked to whom they defer most, second-most and third-most, on AI timelines. You can see the survey here.
Results
This spreadsheet has the raw anonymised survey results. Here are some plots which try to summarise them.
Simply tallying up the number of times that each person is deferred to:
The plot only features people who were deferred to by at least two respondents.
Some basic observations:
- Overall, respondents defer most frequently to themselves—i.e. their “inside view” or independent impression—and Ajeya Cotra. These two responses were each at least
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