Conservative Main land china population: 1.3 billion
High end Number of infections in China after 2+ months of infections: 80,000
Chance of getting disease = 80,000/1,300,000,000 = 0.006%
(Rounded up)
Death rate = ~2% (higher if age >70, 0.2 if under 40).
Bay area population 7 million
Bay area x contagious rate = 400 people
Actual number with it after February ~ 0
Likely due to younger age of population, but also fairly low infection rate to begin with.
Across US
Population = 300,000,000
High Estimate of infections based on infection rate = 18,000
Multiple by 6 to get a full year, would be 100,000; death rate would equal 3,000
(This seems way to high to me)
Bayesian updated due to awareness, preparation and suspicion I
Conservative Main land china population: 1.3 billion
High end Number of infections in China after 2+ months of infections: 80,000
Chance of getting disease = 80,000/1,300,000,000 = 0.006% (Rounded up)
Death rate = ~2% (higher if age >70, 0.2 if under 40).
Bay area population 7 million Bay area x contagious rate = 400 people Actual number with it after February ~ 0
Likely due to younger age of population, but also fairly low infection rate to begin with.
Across US Population = 300,000,000 High Estimate of infections based on infection rate = 18,000 Multiple by 6 to get a full year, would be 100,000; death rate would equal 3,000 (This seems way to high to me)
Bayesian updated due to awareness, preparation and suspicion I