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Raemon's Shortform

"Relinquish" might be a good alternative. To me "grieving" is more about emotions and is an ongoing process whereas "letting go" or "relinquishing" is about goals and is a one-time decision to stop striving for an outcome.

Sunzi's《Methods of War》- The Army's Form

Also "weighs a kilo [and] is called a gram"

D&D.Sci II Evaluation and Ruleset

For what it's worth, I'm perfectly fine with a week-long delay before the follow-up. I think your proposed solution is okay as well, though I would prefer Monday-Friday rather than Friday-Sunday, since I'm less likely to be at a computer on weekends.

I think the all-or-nothing threshold could have been omitted for a smoother gradient, but I do think it was helpful in this case to highlight the potential do-nothing solution (I seriously considered that Wakalix might be scamming me for some free sacrifice material with a fake/misleading list).

How to solve the argument about what the algorithm should do

How would a third party create an alternative algorithm without all the analytics data of which people that watched a video watched which other videos, etc. Would Youtube be forced to release this info to third parties for this purpose?

Pseudorandomness contest: prizes, results, and analysis

I think this is mainly a feature of the relatively short length. Longer random strings would have less variation.

Pseudorandomness contest: prizes, results, and analysis

(FYI I was playing to maximize EV rather than skewing my guesses to increase variance.)

My Calibration:
1-10: 0/11 (0%)
11-20: 4/11 (36%) (includes the "tricky" #121 and #122, without which is a more reasonable 18%)
21-30: 2/4 (50%) (-)
31-40: 3/8 (38%)
41-50: 5/7 (71%) (-)
51-60: 14/22 (64%)
61-70: 17/31 (55%) (+)
71-80: 13/23 (57%) (+)
81-90: 4/4 (100%)
91-100: (None)

Points breakdown:
3.0 points for my (3) zero predictions (my own #96 string, the 9-containing #106, and the obviously silly #66).
10.8 points for my (11) 1-10 predictions (all correct).
-4.3 points for my (2) 11% predictions on the "tricky" #121 and #122 strings.
2.9 points for my other (9) 11-20 predictions
0.0 points for my (41) 21-60 predictions
-3.8 points for my (54) 61-80 predictions (most of my overconfidence is here)
3.4 points for my (4) 81-90 predictions (all correct).
(12.0 total)


I'm curious if participants #99, #107 and #124 care to say why they gave my string (#96) the scores they did.

purrtrandrussell's Shortform

I agree that a descriptive answer is appropriate for the is question, but isn't a prescriptive one implied by the ought?

D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper

I feel silly now after looking at gjm's answer. I had actually sorted the list by type, attribute and modifier already without finding obvious patterns, and I had planned to do color as well, but then I took a break and when I came back I forgot to look at the colors.

D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper

An average item yields about 20 mana, so six average items would be needed to yield 120 mana. An average item costs about 40gp, so six average items costs about 240gp. Since I only have 200gp I would need to be pretty confident of my choices to expect to make a profit from this. The expected profit for any combination of items is 200*P(success) - cost, so for a purchase to be profitable, it is necessary that P(success) > cost/200.

I estimated the optimism of the Thaumometer for each item by averaging the optimism scores of each trait (average of ln of reading/actual for items with that trait). I used this optimism estimate to calculate a corrected reading for each item. I also calculated a separate mana score for each item by averaging the mana scores of each trait. Finally, I averaged the corrected Thaumometer score with the mana score for each item to get a final guess for its mana yield.

I sorted the list of available items by efficiency (final guess divided by price). [10, 11, 3, 12, 4, 7, 6, 5, 9, 8, 1, 2]

The profit-maximizing strategy should be some number of the most efficient items with at least 120 total expected mana that cost no more than 200gp. As it turns out, there is only one such number of items (5). This combination yields an expected 128 mana and costs 181gp for a profit of 19gp. However, for any purchase to be profitable, the probability of success has to be greater than (purchase price)/(budget). In this case that is 181/200 or 90.5%. Given that the expected mana yield is only barely above the threshold, I think I'm only about 65% confident of success - nowhere near 90%.

My choice, therefore, is to decline the offer and return the 200gp.

D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper

Can I use the Pendant of Truth to make the Thaumometer readings more accurate?

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