Mercutio.Mont

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Investing for the Long Slump

Writing call options for many years in the future wouldn't pay 100 to 1, but would put money in your hand now. The big problem is that YOU can end up having to pay 1000 to 1 or 100 to 1 or whatever, essentially unlimited amounts of money, if your bet is wrong.

You can buy put options for X years into the future. That has limited downside (you can only lose your initial investment, no more) and can appreciate 50 times (I don't know about 100...). However, I don't know how the market for these would react to a "long slump," ie, they may not appreciate much just by virtue of the market sitting still. It may need to fall in order for these to appreciate. But I don't know.

I think put options are the closest to what you're looking for: limited downside, theoretically massive upside, far away expiration, etc. But I'm not certain they'll perform as you want.

A New Day

Sounds like Jan 5th will be your New Day!

Intrade and the Dow Drop

Nice post Eliezer. Fascinating, really. It would be very interesting to see this theory tested.

Though one problem is that you assume that Monday's close + 777 is the "neutral" starting point. Despite the fact that the bailout proposal wasn't made public nor finalized until Sunday night, we can expect the market to have anticipated some form of bailout with some likelihood of passage long before Monday. So we'd have to go back a bit further.