The intrade markets are tiny and illiquid for real players. If I can get similar or better odds elsewhere on larger size, which I can, why would I use them?
The intrade market is purely reactive, not predictive. It has been for year and years.
You can't have it both ways by saying they are going to be predictive, but when they are wildly wrong and switch overnight, then they are STILL predictive but taking into account new news.
Secondly, there are real transaction and contract costs involved. Plus the risk of not getting your money back and having to investigate the site, alone, with no help from the gov't if they stiff you.
If you think the tiny volume in that market is representative of ALL the collective wisdom as the NYSE is, or the Eurobond market, you're clearly mistaken.
The intrade markets are tiny and illiquid for real players. If I can get similar or better odds elsewhere on larger size, which I can, why would I use them?
The intrade market is purely reactive, not predictive. It has been for year and years. You can't have it both ways by saying they are going to be predictive, but when they are wildly wrong and switch overnight, then they are STILL predictive but taking into account new news.
Secondly, there are real transaction and contract costs involved. Plus the risk of not getting your money back and having to investigate the site, alone, with no help from the gov't if they stiff you.
If you think the tiny volume in that market is representative of ALL the collective wisdom as the NYSE is, or the Eurobond market, you're clearly mistaken.