This post is excellent. I'm the intended audience. I have to re-read Eliezer 3-4 times to grasp his stuff. Cuz I'm a little dumber. Here I get it on Read 1.
I would add - is the next layer of people you need to persuade those who are politically tribal? If yes, is someone in this community trying that?
A red tribe communications experiment would be to say to them: "Greta has the wrong existential threat. It's not climate change. It's bad super bots. AI gone wrong. With nukes, we can scare the bad guys because we have 'em too. Not perfect (we've come close a few times) but not bad. With bad bots, deterrence doesn't quite work. They don't scare. So we need an Always Good bot. Think of it like a missile shield. Constantly identifying and then defeating bad bots."
That could be appealing to red tribe. Someone to dunk on. Threat with a response they've liked before (example Reagan SDI, which didn't quite work in its incarnation, but Israel has some hot laser action these days).