LESSWRONG
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Michael Latowicki
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Missing forecasting tools: from catalogs to a new kind of prediction market
Michael Latowicki1y10

Thank you for pointing me that way. No I have not!

So I took a quick look. This looks a lot like HuggingFace. It's good to be reminded that these things exist and they do have some things in common with what I propose. As they stand, though, it's not it. Notice I'm talking about scientific models here. The mindset with which I approach this is one of theoretically-motivated, sparsely connected models, the kind you learn about when you take a university course in say, psychology or economics, not the kind you train with neural networks.

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[Link] Promoting rationality in higher education media channels
Michael Latowicki1y10

Hi Gleb. It's been 9 years since you wrote this post. If you are still interested in strategies to promote rationality broadly, I have an idea which I'm starting work on. Basically it's about creating an layperson-friendly system for empirically evaluating predictive mathematical models of recurring phenomena. My thesis is that ordinary people are currently unable to separate knowledge from confidently-stated BS in most topics, and that the two are separable by shaping knowledge into predictive models and testing those predictive models against subsequently-measured data. I'm looking for partners. Would you like to have a conversation?

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