Conversation Starter Readings:
Suggested readings for this week are these summaries. These readings are optional, but if you do them, think about what you find interesting, surprising, useful, questionable, vexing, or exciting.
1) Collapse of civilization (summaries of The collapse of complex civilizations)
Philosophical Disquisitions: The Collapse of Complex Societies: A Primer on Tainter's Theory
SSC Book review of the same book.
Your Book Review: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-collapse-of
The Vulnerable world hypothesis by Nick Bostrom
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1N__ClbxiRg2UCztuUJ1vEhNrR6kffGbl/view?usp=sharing
2) The nature of consciousness
Consciousness and the brain book reviews.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x4n4jcoDP7xh5LWLq/book-summary-consciousness-and-the-brain#:~:text=Consciousness%20involves%20a%20neural%20signal,that%20this%20theory%20would%20predict.
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-consciousness-and
Audio Version
https://sscpodcast.libsyn.com/your-book-review-consciousness-and-the-brain
ACXLW Meetup in the park this Saturday Sept 17 2022
Hello folks!
I am glad to announce the Fifth of a continuing series of Orange County ACX/LW meetups. Meeting this Saturday and most Saturdays. The first few meetings were great (approximately 8 to 10 people), and I hope to see many of you at this one. Snacks will be available.
Saturday, 9/10/22, 2 pm
1900 Port Carlow Place, Newport Beach, 92660
The Picnic tables outside the community clubhouse
33.6173166789459, -117.85885652037152
https://goo.gl/maps/WmzxQhBM2vdpJvz39
Plus code 8554J48R+WFJ
Contact me, Michael, at michaelmichalchik+acxlw@gmail.com with questions or requests.
Activities (all activities are optional)
A) Two conversation starter topics this week will be. (readings at the end)
1) Collapse of Societies
2) The nature of consciousness
B) We will also have the card game Predictably Irrational. Feel free to bring your own favorite games or distractions. This is a pet-friendly park and meeting.
C) There will be opportunities to go for a walk and talk about an hour after the meeting starts and use some gas barbeques if anyone wants to grill something. There are two easy-access mini-malls nearby with takeout hot food available. Search for Gelson's or Pavilions in the zipcode 92660. I will provide some snacks and water.
D) Share a surprise! Tell the group about something that happened that was unexpected or changed the way you look at the universe.
E) Make a prediction and give a probability and end condition.
F) Contribute ideas to the future direction of the group. Topics, types of meetings, activities, etc.
Hello folks!
*On Rainy days, we may retreat to my house. Contact me directly for info.
I am glad to announce the fourth of a continuing series of Orange County ACX/LW meetups. Meeting this Saturday and most Saturdays. The first few meetings were great, and I hope to see many of you at this one.
Saturday, 9/10/22, 2 pm
1900 Port Carlow Place, Newport Beach, 92660
The Picnic tables outside the community clubhouse
33.6173166789459, -117.85885652037152
https://goo.gl/maps/WmzxQhBM2vdpJvz39
Plus code 8554J48R+WFJ
Contact me, Michael, at michaelmichalchik+acxlw@gmail.com with questions or requests.
Activities (all activities are optional)
A) Two conversation starter topics this week will be. (readings at the end)
1) Prediction Markets
2) Psychedelics.
B) We will also have the card game Predictably Irrational. Feel free to bring your own favorite games or distractions. This is a pet-friendly park and meeting.
C) There will be opportunities to go for a walk and talk about an hour after the meeting starts and use some gas barbeques if anyone wants to grill something. There are two easy-access mini-malls nearby with takeout hot food available. Search for Gelson's or Pavilions in the zipcode 92660. I will attempt to start getting snacks and food reimbursed, so free munchies and drinks (probably).
D) Share a surprise! Tell the group about something that happened that was unexpected or changed the way you look at the universe.
E) Make a prediction and give a probability and end condition.
F) Contribute ideas to the future direction of the group. Topics, types of meetings, activities, etc.
Conversation Starter Readings:
Suggested readings for this week are these summaries. These readings are optional, but if you do them, think about what you find interesting, surprising, useful, questionable, vexing, or exciting.
1) Prediction Markets
An intro to the general idea of prediction markets from Wikipedia. I concentrated more on the theory and accuracy sections. Where do you think prediction markets should be applied? Under what sorts of circumstances do you expect them to fail? What sort of “moral hazards” might they create? Can they be used to replace certain forms of regulation like drug approval and speed limits?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
https://daily.jstor.org/how-accurate-are-prediction-markets/
2) For psychedelics:
I came across a video channel that does a good job describing the phenomenology of the psychedelic experience. This video covers the trippy topic of psychedelic entities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zFB5TvqodQ
Also featured in Scott’s story.
https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/04/21/universal-love-said-the-cactus-person/
Audio version:
https://unsong.libsyn.com/universal-love-said-the-cactus-person
This Journal article is interesting speculation on the role of psychedelics in human evolution. Not a hypothesis I generally favor but worth discussing. Did using psychedelics create a religious orientation to metaphysical themes that allowed new forms of culture to emerge that provided a selective advantage? Were cultural restrictions on the use of psychedelics necessary for larger coherent societies to form without too much lateral thinking? Are psychedelics a necessary catalyst for change and/or a disruptive factor in our current society? How will societies that allow widespread use of psychedelics compete against societies that don’t?
If you want a more general introduction to psychedelics, here is a book summary of the recent popular review of psychedelics. “ How to change your mind” by Michael Pollen
https://www.hustleescape.com/book-summary-how-to-change-your-mind-by-michael-pollan/
For details of the event, go to this document.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hjRNnOOeH6cUdbBDyk0co9I3exBwc2b3YH9Bq1OxRoc/edit?usp=sharing
Hello folks!
I am glad to announce the third of a continuing series of Orange County ACX/LW meetups. Meeting this Saturday and most Saturdays. The first meeting was great, and I hope to see many of you at this one.
Saturday, 9/3/22, 2 pm
1900 Port Carlow Place, Newport Beach, 92660
The Picnic tables outside the community clubhouse
33.6173166789459, -117.85885652037152
https://goo.gl/maps/WmzxQhBM2vdpJvz39
Plus code 8554J48R+WFJ
Contact me, Michael, at michaelmichalchik+acxlw@gmail.com with questions or requests.
Activities (all activities are optional)
A) Two conversation starter topics this week will be. (readings at the end)
1) What is open-mindedness
2) Psychedelics.
B) We will also have the card game Predictably Irrational and frisbees. Feel free to bring your own favorite games or distractions. This is a pet-friendly park and meeting.
C) There will be opportunities to go for a walk and talk about an hour after the meeting starts and use some gas barbeques if anyone wants to grill something. There are two easy-access mini-malls nearby with takeout hot food available. Search for Gelson's or Pavilions in the zipcode 92660.
D) Share a surprise! Tell the group about something that happened that was unexpected or changed the way you look at the universe.
E) Make a prediction and give a probability and end condition.
F) Contribute ideas to the future direction of the group. Topics, types of meetings, activities, etc.
Conversation Starter Readings:
Suggested readings for this week are these summaries. These readings are optional, but if you do them, think about what you find interesting, surprising, useful, questionable, vexing, or exciting.
1) Openmindedness.
This week we will try a classic video from the Skeptic/Atheist movement. Questions to think about and discuss? Is this a good description of the reality of open-mindedness? Did it change how you thought about open-mindedness? What do you think are the essential elements of open-mindedness to rationality? Is skepticism necessary for openmindedness and when does it work against it?
And/or This SSC essay. “The Control group is out of control”. What are the upsides and downsides of calling paranormal studies the control group for the scientific method. Does this increase our ability to be open to correct ideas, and is it worth shutting the door on exhausted lines of investigation? Why do you think belief in psychic powers affects the results of apparently rigorously replicated experiments? What do you make of the results of the smart rat, dumb rat experiment? Did you realize that double-blind is often thrown around as a claim when the second blinding is poorly done or not done at all and what is the importance of blinding to open-mindedness?
Written The Control Group Is Out Of Control | Slate Star Codex
Audio The Control Group Is Out of Control [Classic]
2) For psychedelics:
We will dip back into some of the best descriptive research done in the 1960s on the phenomenology of psychedelics. Read chapter 1 of “The varieties of psychedelic experience.”This book has many good digests of different people's reactions and experiences with psychedelics. What types of experience most interest you? What did you not know about? What potential applications come to mind after reading these experiences? Do you agree with the taxonomy that the authors create?
the varieties of psychedelic experience.pdf
This is an interview with an experienced PTSD researcher that has been involved with the cutting-edge of PTSD treatment research about MDMA therapy. I generally like what he has to say and find his perspectives useful. I will put one caveat, which is he gets really enthusiastic about a lot of things. He is a generally more optimistic person than me.
Bessel van der Kolk on MDMA assisted therapy for PTSD: More profound than anything we have done
Finally, here are a couple of short videos by a guy that has used a lot of different drugs and ruined his life with them. He at first enthusiastically endorsed MDMA, but it did not stop him from ruining his life with other drugs or properly addressing the deep psychological issues he had to face. Psychedelics are often not enough and can even be a distraction or copium and have their own abuse potential.
What MDMA Feels Like
“I was wrong about psychedelics”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRpXtHR0o5o
If you want a more general introduction to psychedelics, here is a book summary of the recent popular review of psychedelics. “ How to change your mind” by Michael Pollen
https://www.hustleescape.com/book-summary-how-to-change-your-mind-by-michael-pollan/
Note that this week's event is at 3:30, not the usual 2 pm. Here is a link to the event for this week.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/15p3h-DoIqBg2VKA6_etL5geMu-gWNNVyyQliUDvCbsI/edit?usp=sharing
Hello folks!
I am glad to announce the second of a continuing series of Orange County ACX/LW meetups. Meeting this Saturday and most Saturdays. Note this week, we will meet at 3:30, not 2. The first meeting was great, and I hope to see many of you at this one. Based on the first meeting, I chose two popular topics to prompt future conversation and activities.
Saturday, 8/27/22, 3:30 pm
1900 Port Carlow Place, Newport Beach, 92660
The Picnic tables outside the community clubhouse
33.6173166789459, -117.85885652037152
https://goo.gl/maps/WmzxQhBM2vdpJvz39
Plus code 8554J48R+WFJ
Contact me, Michael, at michaelmichalchik+acxlw@gmail.com with questions or requests.
This week it will be at 3:30 (usually 2:00) to avoid a conflict with an online LW meetup
Activities (all activities are optional)
A) Two conversation starter topics this week will be. (readings at the end)
1) Forecasting and predicting the future
2) Psychedelics.
B) We will also have the card game Predictably Irrational. Feel free to bring your own favorite games or distractions.
C) There will be opportunities to go for a walk and talk about an hour after the meeting starts and use some gas barbeques if anyone wants to grill something. There are two easy-access mini-malls nearby with takeout hot food available.
D) Share a surprise! Tell the group about something that happened that was unexpected or changed the way you look at the universe.
E) Make a prediction and give a probability and end condition.
F) Contribute ideas to the future direction of the group. Topics, types of meetings, activities, etc…
Conversation Starter Readings:
Suggested readings for this week are these summaries. These readings are optional, but if you do them, think about what you find interesting, surprising, useful, questionable, vexing, or exciting.
1) Prediction
Superforcasting is a review of experiments done about how well various types of experts do in predicting the future. Generalists tend to do better than specialists in prediction, but why? Groups tend to do better than individuals, but are there ways to improve the performance of groups even further? How can you train yourself to be better at prediction? How can you help others?
https://howdo.com/book-summaries/superforecasting-summary-and-review/
Or The Harvard business review application to business
https://hbr.org/2016/05/superforecasting-how-to-upgrade-your-companys-judgment
Or the ACX Review
https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/02/04/book-review-superforecasting/
And this excerpt from Future Babble is a more critical look at prediction science.
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/books/review/excerpt-future-babble-by-dan-gardner.html
For psychedelics:
The tale of two receptors is an interesting speculation as to the underlying pharmacology of psychedelics. Hypothesizing that serotonin can both help us cope with the distress of a bad situation and help us look for creative ideas out of the old mental habits that can keep us trapped in a bad situation. Conventional antidepressants and atypical antipsychotics operate on the acceptance system, while psychedelics operate on the later, lateral thinking. Is this perspective useful? Oversimplified? Can it be made into a rigorous scientific idea, or is it just another evolutionary just-so story? What possible uses and hazards does this suggest for psychedelics?
https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/10/10/ssc-journal-club-serotonin-receptors/ or https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0269881117725915
If you want a more general introduction to psychedelics, here is a book summary of the recent popular review of psychedelics. “ How to change your mind” by Michael Pollen
https://www.hustleescape.com/book-summary-how-to-change-your-mind-by-michael-pollan/
I get the error, link permanently deleted when I try to follow that link. Is this just a random error or has it been permanently deleted? Does it exist somewhere else or has the document been superseded by another document?
" There can't be too many things that reduce the expected value of the future by 10%; if there were, there would be no expected value left. "
This is the argument from consequences fallacy. There may be many things that could destroy the future with high probability and we are simply doomed BUT the more interesting scenario and a much better working assumption is that there potentially dangerous things that are likely to destroy the future IF we don't seek to understand them and try to correct them by concerted effort as opposed to continuing on as we do now with teh level of effort and concern we have now.
ACXLW Longevity (special guest speaker) 9/2/23
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wu69N0x-dvEN3NImEDCEZfd0MOeCQe6cS4AolAdiCuc/edit?usp=sharing
Hello Folks!
We are excited to announce the 41st Orange County ACX/LW meetup, happening this Saturday and most Saturdays thereafter.
Host: Michael Michalchik
Email: michaelmichalchik@gmail.com (For questions or requests)
Location: 1970 Port Laurent Place
(949) 375-2045
Date: Saturday, Sept 2, 2023
Time: 2 PM
This Saturday we are fortunate to have a special guest speaker, Professor Michael Rose, one of the leading researchers in the world on the evolution of aging and scientific strategies for health and life extension. His experiments and analysis point towards a heterodox approach to human life extension that has immediate implications on lifestyle and that provides a new scientific paradigm to develop advanced life extension technologies.
Please read the following outline of his research and approach to healthy long life, and bring your questions, comments, and criticisms for the presentation and lively discussion that will follow.
This link is the summary:
https://55theses.org/the-55-theses/
The full text starts on this web page and continues on linked pages in the sidebar:
https://55theses.org/2011/03/18/thesis-1/
Or, if you want the 55 theses on evolutionary strategies for aging and commentary, a full-length PDF is here:
https://michaelroses55.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/55-theses-explained-final.pdf
A 20 minute audio is available here:
https://youtu.be/vd6Dm978dbg?si=_X6noVVrCKw9T-tD
Embracing the power of evolution to stop aging | Dr. Michael Rose
Here is a summary from Claude 2:
Aging as a Decline in Adaptation
Experimental Evolution of Aging
Role of Natural Selection in Patterns of Aging
Human Aging in Evolutionary Context
Impact of Agriculture on Human Aging
Cessation of Aging
Antagonistic Pleiotropy
Evolutionary Basis for Life Extension