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Michael Roe
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3Michael Roe's Shortform
9mo
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3Michael Roe's Shortform
9mo
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Tell people as early as possible it's not going to work out
[+]Michael Roe3d-5-11
Paranoia: A Beginner's Guide
Michael Roe4d10

Go ahead, delete it if you don’t think it was a good comment,


It was an honest attempt to think of instances of paranoid uncertainty (protestors don’t know if other protestors are acting in good faith), but sure, delete it if you think it wasn’t up to standard,

Reply1
Paranoia: A Beginner's Guide
Michael Roe4d-30

Just before the jan 6th riots, Ray Epps was inciting people to go into the Capitol, and lots of people accused him of being a Fed (i.e. an undercover agent).


Now, you can’t prove that, but the game theory is something like..

A) A Federal agent is trying to incite you into committing a crime, and you’re going to arrested if you go along with it

B) He’s an idiot

… and you don’t know which. Regardless of which it actually was, the prudent thing to do here is assume it might be A.

Reply
Paranoia: A Beginner's Guide
[+]Michael Roe4d-70
Why I Transitioned: A Case Study
Michael Roe14d10

At the risk of this being a plot spoiler for Inside Mari, there is something that surprises me about that manga…




it suggests, I think, that the character has a sudden, abrupt dissociation, where they suddenly perceive themself as a different gender. I think, from talking to a bunch of trans people, that what they have is just not like that. On the other hand, I think it’s entirely possible that some minority of trans people really do have something like that.

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Why I Transitioned: A Case Study
Michael Roe15d30

“It's that they know what it feels like to feel attracted to women, and are desperate to have that same kind of loving attention directed back at themselves.”


From reading Ray Blanchard, I get the impression that this is not AGP in his typology. He thinks AGP is paraphilic attraction to being a woman, which — in his view — is quite different from wanting a sexual or romantic relationship with a person, and regarding transition as a means to get sex, love, etc.

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Why I Transitioned: A Case Study
Michael Roe15d73

The comedy account HalimedeMF says:


“personally I think a lot of white transgender women would benefit from not basing their entire ideas of femininity on the wrong anime girls. as a woman you're supposed to be defined by your mother's failings”

Reply
LLM-generated text is not testimony
Michael Roe16d60

Usually, when I’m sharing LLM generated text, it’s to demonstrate some observed property of LLMs, not to make some other claim about the world.


It’s not, “This claim about the real world is true, because this LLM said it” — that’s an invalid deduction. It’s “This claim about a particular LLM is true, because here’s evidence of it doing the thing.”


We get into more interesting territory when an LLM suggests some thing about the world, and I verify that its argument is sound. How should we credit that? It’s not true because the LLM said it, it’s true because you can verify it. But perhaps we don’t want to take credit for coming up with it ourselves.

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EU explained in 10 minutes
Michael Roe21d10

Ethnicity isn’t quite the same as nationality, and ethnicity is at least part in people’s heads and not objective.


As a matter of law, Wales is part of the UK and France isn’t. And yet Wales has a language and a flag, and you can call yourself a Welsh on census forms if you feel like it.


So there might be an element to the EU that is more like an ethnicity than a state, that the peoples of assorted Western European nations feel part of some ethnicity that’s wider than a state, just as you can belong to an ethnicity that’s more regional than a state.

Reply
EU explained in 10 minutes
Michael Roe22d40

I think I agree with the analysis that the EU is like nothing else.


As I tried to think of a comparison: The Hanseatic League? No, it’s not like that. But, surprisingly, some of the EU countries have formed an alliance calling itself The New Hanseatic League.

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