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Michael Roe
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Your LLM-assisted scientific breakthrough probably isn't real
Michael Roe3d50

I frequently find myself being the reviewer for conference paper submissions where the result is correct, but not interesting. The referee feedback form usually has a tick box for this.

The introduction section in your paper needs to convey “why does anyone care whether this is true or not?”

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Your LLM-assisted scientific breakthrough probably isn't real
Michael Roe3d10

Most of the well-known LLMs are absurdly sycophantic, so I would most certainly not trust them over whether an idea is good.


They’re also unreliable on whether it’s right, at least on obscure topics, as when they don’t know they take what’s in the prompt and just assume it must be right.


====


I seem to have basically reinvented how Deep Research AI works recently, as the completely obvious thing you would think of doing, which is hooking up LLMs to a framework that can pull in search results, has in fact already been done by the AI companies. I make no claim of novelty here: this is just the totally obvious “ok, so I have an LLM. Great. How can I get it to give a sensible answer to my question?” And, of course, everyone and their dog is doing it.

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On "ChatGPT Psychosis" and LLM Sycophancy
Michael Roe2mo20

I think

 (a) The Blake Lemoine case ought to be included in a history of this phenomenon, whatever it is

(b) I am not claiming that he was psychotic. Maybe this phenomenon isn’t schizophrenia.

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Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity
Michael Roe2mo21

This is about what I expected.


Future work ought to try A with inexperienced programmers, or xperienced programmers working on unfamiliar codebases. A theory we might have at this point is that it’s harder for AI to help more experienced people.

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Take Precautionary Measures Against Superhuman AI Persuasion
Michael Roe2mo44

I am going to mildly dispute the claim that people we spend most time with don’t want to hurt us.


Ok, if we’re talking about offline, real world interactions, I think this is probably true.


But online, we are constantly fed propaganda. All the time, you are encountering attempts to make you believe stuff that isn’t true. And yes, humans were vulnerable to this before we had AI.

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Consider chilling out in 2028
Michael Roe2mo1-2

I think “NPC” in that sense is more used by the conspiracy theory community than rationalists.

With the idea being that only the person using the term is smart enough to realize that e.g. the Government is controlled by lizards from outer space, and everyone else just believes the media.


The fundamental problem with the term is that you might actually be wrong about e.g. the lizards from outer space, and you might not be as smart as you think.

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Consider chilling out in 2028
Michael Roe3mo10

I know you aren’t real, little sarcastic squirrel, but sometimes the things you say have merit to them, nevertheless.

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Consider chilling out in 2028
Michael Roe3mo10

In one of my LLM eval tests, DeepSeek R1 generated the chapter headings of a parody of a book about relationships, including the chapter  Intimacy Isn’t Just Physical: The Quiet Moments That Matter. Now, ok, DeepSeek is parodying that type of book here, but also, it’s kind of true. When you look back on it, it is the “quiet moments” that mattered, in the end,


(Default assistant character in most mainstream LLMs is hellish sycophantic, so I ought to add here that when i mentioned this to DeepSeek emulating a sarcastic squirrel out of a Studio Ghibli movie, it made gagging noises about my sentimentality. So there’s that, too.)

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Consider chilling out in 2028
Michael Roe3mo10

I was just explaining this post to my partner. Now, although I put AI extinction  as low probability, I have a thyroid condition. Usually treatable: drugs like carbimazole, radio iodine, surgery etc. in my case, complications make things somewhat worse than is typical. So, she just asked how to rate how likely I think it is I don’t, personally, make it to 2028 for medical reasons, I’m like, idk, I guess maybe 50% chance I don’t make it that far. I shall be pleasantly surprised if I make it. Kind of surprised I made it to July this year, to be honest.

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Consider chilling out in 2028
Michael Roe3mo12

But anyway, the point I was getting at is that people are traumatized from something unrelated to AI.

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