A few considerations that may change the historical observation that death rates match confirmed case growth rates.
Consider the lancet article below, where the mean time to death for persons who die from infection is 18.8 days, with a coefficient of variation of 0.45, which calculates out to a standard deviation of about 8 days. Sustained growth for many more doublings than is seen in prior countries, will result in an accumulation of latent mortality (That is, 15% of cases contracted today, that result in death, won't do so for >27 days, and 50% w... (read more)
A few considerations that may change the historical observation that death rates match confirmed case growth rates.
Consider the lancet article below, where the mean time to death for persons who die from infection is 18.8 days, with a coefficient of variation of 0.45, which calculates out to a standard deviation of about 8 days. Sustained growth for many more doublings than is seen in prior countries, will result in an accumulation of latent mortality (That is, 15% of cases contracted today, that result in death, won't do so for >27 days, and 50% w... (read more)