What does it mean for a probability not to be well defined in this context? I mean, I think I share the intuition, but I'm not really comfortable with it either. Doesn't it seem strange that a probability could be well defined until I start learning more about it and trying to change it? How litt...(read more)
+1 and many thanks for wading into this with me... I've been working all day and I'm still at work so can't necessarily respond in full...
I agree that these problems are a lot simpler if reducing my uncertainty about X cannot help me affect X. This is not a minor class of problems. I'd love to h...(read more)
hmmm, I guess I missed that. Should I remove this post?
Economist Jeff Ely recently blogged an interesting example of a slippery slope. http://cheaptalk.org/2012/03/27/the-slippery-slope/
Woh, I did allow myself to misread/misremember your initial comment a bit so I'll dial it back slightly. The fact that even at the highest levels IQ is still positively correlated to income is important, and its what I would have expected, so the overall story does not undermine my support for the ...(read more)
> I wonder whether there's a correlation between depression and being conflict averse.
I would guess that there is, and I'm sure there has been at least some academic study of it. [This doesn't really address](http://permut.wordpress.com/2010/03/02/depressions-upside/) the issue, but its related.
Let me put it this way. Before considering the Terman data on patents you presented, I already thought IQ would be positively correlated with producing positive externalities and that there was a mostly one way causal link from the former to the latter. I expected the correlation between patents ...(read more)
It seems someone should link up "Why and How to Debate Charitably." I can't find a copy of the original because the author has taken it down. Here is a [discussion of it on LW.](http://lesswrong.com/lw/58x/link_why_and_how_to_debate_charitably/). Here are my [bulleted summary quotes.](http://perm...(read more)
On its own, I don't consider this strong evidence for the greater productivity of the IQ elite. If they were contributions to open-source projects, that would be one thing. But people doing work that generates patents *which don't lead to higher income* - that raises some questions for me. Is it ...(read more)
I used cryonics as example because komponisto used it before me. I intended my question to be more general. "If you're trying to market LW, or ideas commonly discussed here, then which celebrities and opinion-leaders should you focus on?"