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April Coronavirus Open Thread

Some more on proning in this NYT article:

Some patients, by taking oxygen and rolling onto their sides or on their bellies, have quickly returned to normal levels. The tactic is called proning.
[...]
At Lincoln Hospital in the Bronx, Dr. Nicholas Caputo followed 50 patients who arrived with low oxygen levels between 69 and 85 percent (95 is normal). After five minutes of proning, they had improved to a mean of 94 percent. Over the next 24 hours, nearly three-quarters were able to avoid intubation; 13 needed ventilators. Proning does not seem to work as well in older patients, a number of doctors said.
No one knows yet if this will be a lasting remedy, Dr. Caputo said, but if he could go back to early March, he would advise himself and others: “Don’t jump to intubation.”
[...]
Dr. Josh Farkas, who specializes in pulmonary and critical care medicine at the University of Vermont, said the risks of proning were low. “This is a simple technique which is safe and fairly easy to do,” Dr. Farkas said. “I started doing this some years ago in occasional patients, but never imagined that it would become this widespread and useful.”
April Coronavirus Open Thread

Something to keep an eye out for:

we also predict that the virus may invade multiple brain tissues, which may help explain to the loss of taste and smell in infected individuals. Has anyone seen evidence of further brain damage in COVID-19 patients? Please share if you do!
Also unexpected is the prediction that the virus may be able to invade the reproductive system (vagina, uterus, testis, cervix, ovary). Has anyone seen evidence for this? Please share if you do.
The COVID-19 targets do not show significant overlap with any major disease module (we tested it against 299 diseases in Menche et al.). The closest diseases to the COVID-19 targets are cardiovascular diseases and cancer, in line with the clinical evidence. Interestingly, we once again find disease of the nervous system among the most proximal diseases

Source


NYT: "Some Coronavirus Patients Show Signs of Brain Ailments"

April Coronavirus Open Thread

New post by Tomas Pueyo, the author of 'Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance':

'Coronavirus: Out of Many, One'

Here’s what we’re going to cover today, with a lot of data, charts and sources:
1. What’s the situation in the US and its states
2. Why the coronavirus should be a bipartisan issue
3. The economics of controlling the virus
4. Which decisions should be left to the federal government or to states
Here’s what you’ll take away:
The coronavirus is growing everywhere in the US.
Some states are on their way to controlling it.
Others have massive outbreaks that make China’s outbreak pale in comparison.
Many are unprepared, and will suffer some of the worst outbreaks.
All voters care about this, Democrats and Republicans.
Democrats were hit first.
But Republicans have more to lose.
They’re older and more likely to die.
Most hesitation comes from the perceived cost of suppressing the virus.
Fortunately, it’s cheaper to suppress it than to let it run loose.
We should do it.
But right now, states are left fending for themselves. It’s a mess.
They are competing against each other instead of collaborating.
They might be forced to seal their borders with each other.
There is a role for states and a role for the federal government. The federal government coordinates, the states execute.
If both step up, we will save lives and increase the GDP.
April Coronavirus Open Thread

Video explaining the Czech Republic's experience of having everyone make home-made masks in about 10 days, from a starting point of almost no masks being worn in public in the country.


Here is their COVID19 infection curves on a log chart (seems to be flattening).

April Coronavirus Open Thread

"The Case for Universal Cloth Mask Adoption & Policies to Increase the Supply of Medical Masks for Health Workers"

Excerpt from Twitter thread summarizing it:

We have very good evidence that universal adoption of cloth masks will combat the spread of the virus. Specifically, we know that 1) asymptomatic people spread the virus, 2) mask wearing by infected people prevents them from transmitting the virus (the report provides citations).
How large are the benefits? Even if masks reduce transmission probabilities by only 10% (and as you'll see, that is likely very conservative), the value of *each cloth mask* is between $3,000 and $6,000. Our best estimate is that their protective value is closer to 40-50%.
These estimates are of course sensitive to the assumptions made in the underlying epidemiological models. But even if those models overstate mortality risk by a factor of TEN, each cloth mask *conservatively* generates $300 in value!
That policy is getting more medical masks to healthcare workers. The same economic argument that says that masks for the average person are worth thousands of dollars suggests that each N95 respirator for a healthcare worker could be worth *millions* of dollars (report says why).
[...]
This is why we recommend universal adoption of *cloth masks*, at least until there is no (domestic or global) shortage of medical masks for healthcare workers. Homemade cloth masks do not interfere with the production of medical masks.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6ua7j979dbqb045/masks_final_n_HF_NA.pdf?dl=0

Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread

It seems to me like this study wasn't very good and I've been more convinced by the rebuttals, such as this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0u8UdZeOhc

Seeing the Smoke

The tone of this post, including the title, reminds me of an exchange between two characters on the TV show Deadwood (HBO, 2004-2006):

Wild Bill Hickok:
You know the sound of thunder, don't you, Mrs. Garrett?

Alma Garrett:
Of course.

Wild Bill Hickok:
Can you imagine that sound if I asked you to?

Alma Garrett:
Yes I can, Mr. Hickok.

Wild Bill Hickok:
' Your husband and me had this talk, and I told him to head home to avoid a dark result. But I didn't say it in thunder. Ma'am, listen to the thunder.

Rationality Quotes August 2012

The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any chance ever observes…

— Arthur Conan Doyle, “The Hound of the Baskervilles”

Rationality Quotes May 2012

If you want to build a ship, don't drum up the men to gather wood, divide the work and give orders. Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea...

  • Antoine de Saint Exupery
Rationality Quotes May 2012

“Smart people learn from their mistakes. But the real sharp ones learn from the mistakes of others.”

― Brandon Mull, Fablehaven

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