What is the semantics of assigning probabilities to future events?
My question concerns the semantics of making future predictions such as 'the probability of X winning the election is 70%'. There are programs, e.g., Good Judgment, IARPA ACE, aimed at excelling at this kind of predictions. In the classic mathematical interpretation of probability we can say 'the probability that one...
Apr 1, 202112
I like the idea of defining a betting game 'forecasters vs cosmic bookie'. Then saying 'the probability that people will land on Mars by 2040 is 42%' translates into semantics 'I am willing to buy an option for Y<42 cents that would be worth $1 if we land on Mars by 2040 or $0 otherwise'.
To compare several forecasters we can consider a game in which each player is offered to buy some options of this kind. Suppose that for each x in {1, \dots, 99} each player is allowed to buy one option for x cents. If one believes that the probability of an event is 30% then it is profitable for... (read more)