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Freelance Software Engineer at day, Rationalist and Effective Altruist at night
Currently, under contract @ METR.
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Intro I tried out for Manifold Markets in May and June 2022. It didn't work out, welcome to the postmortem. Here's an article by the founders about Manifold, some of this post won't make sense if you don't know anything about prediction markets. Timeline I found out in May that...