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If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be?
mkf10y20

One possible answer, related to the concept of calibration, is this: it means that it rained in 70% of the cases when you predicted 70% chance of rain.

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A Strange Argument about the potential Importance of Multiverse Theory
mkf10y10

I don't think I have anything valuable to add on the object level, but: the way you introduce Christian Madsen at the end of your post doesn't really sound encouraging with regard to cooperation with you. You guys should work on a better elevator pitch.

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"The Difference Between Medicine and Poison is Dosage" Shirts and Bags
mkf10y100

Sorry to be blunt, but I find them simply ugly. This many fonts and effects make text hard to read and look like someone's first engagement with MS Word when they were 12.

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Open thread, Oct. 26 - Nov. 01, 2015
mkf10y30

The All-Nighter Experiment: What Worked and What Didn't

"I spent a week researching the best advice I could find from seasoned bankers, "Hackathon" sleep doctors, and the military elite. Then I stayed up all-night and experimented on myself, trying the techniques and figuring out what worked and what didn't.

Even though I'm self-employed and I set my own "deadlines", I still chose to stay up for 36 hours straight. I don't know if that makes me crazy, or dedicated, or maybe crazy dedicated... probably just crazy.

This post contains the most useful takeaways from the experience, including three things that worked and three things that didn't."

http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/the-all-nighter-experiment-what-worked-and-what-didnt

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Deliberate Grad School
mkf10y40

PhD programs in mathematics, statistics, philosophy, and theoretical computer science tend to give you a great deal of free time and flexibility, provided you can pass the various qualifying exams without too much studying.

Economics also has good opinion among the EA/rationality crowd:

  • http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/if-you-get-phd-get-economics-phd.html
  • https://80000hours.org/career-guide/top-careers/profiles/economics-phd/
  • and posts by Bryan Caplan (links under the first link)
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Is Scott Alexander bad at math?
mkf10y30

Mostly his self-description, like here.

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May 2015 Media Thread
mkf10y10

Recent sequence on mathematical ability and Scott A. being bad at math (or is he?) reminded me of this short story (possibly nonfiction), which I recommend: Bad At Math by Alone a.k.a. The Last Psychiatrist. http://thelastpsychiatrist.com/2011/03/bad_at_math.html

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Stupid Questions May 2015
mkf10y140

By the way, it is one of the best examples I've seen of quick, practical gains from reading LW: the ability to sort out problems like this.

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Stupid Questions May 2015
mkf10y40

Could you elaborate?

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Truth is holistic
mkf10y30

You should definitely post it as a top-level post in Main.

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2Meetup : Warsaw November Meetup
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2Meetup : Warsaw August Meetup
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2Meetup : Warsaw: GO playing
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2Meetup : Warsaw integration: Barbecue on the beach
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2Meetup : Warsaw June Meetup: TDT, UDT, WTF
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2Meetup : Warsaw: Newcomb's Problem & Decision Theories
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2Meetup : Warsaw April Meetup
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2Meetup : Warsaw February Meetup
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