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[Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050

The LWO has and can bend a lot without breaking. Great power war risks actually breaking the LWO, and more.

[Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050

Great power war risks destruction of the LWO. The LWO can and does take a whole lot of mockery (including from the US) and keep on ticking in the most important respects: peace and continued technical progress.

Anyway the EEZ conflicts are between jurisdictions in the region, not the US. Freedom of commercial navigation will continue in the absence of military conflict. I expect the oceans to be more and more governed by states, and if it doesn't destroy itself in unnecessary conflict, US power will benefit, as will the UK and France due to their massive head starts (far flung island territories). For example, if seasteading ever becomes viable, over the long term it'll contribute to more governance of oceans by states. Island building is just the beginning.

[Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050

China's interests have been basically unchanged since 1978. Its primary objective is to maintain internal domestic stability i.e. prevent regime change.
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China has prospered under the [Liberal World Order]. Rather than establishing broad international coalitions, China tends to pursue its interests bilaterally. With a few exceptions (like the dispute over the South China Sea) China is content to play according to the rules of the LWO.

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Of all the potential points of conflict, the obvious ones are Taiwan and the South China Sea.

 

Great, there's no reason for the US to fight China over control of sea and land next to China. The sooner the US realizes this, the safer and more prosperous we all, and the LWO, will be.

Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation

My understanding is that Czech citizenship by descent is aimed at people who have parents or grandparents who were citizens of Czechia or Czechoslovakia, ruling out most (a guess; me anyway) US people with Czech ancestry, whose ancestors were citizens of Austria-Hungary. Even this is a fairly recent liberalization (sorry, I can't turn up a reference quickly, though I looked into it sometime during 2020, in part out of jealousy of friends with Irish or Italian ancestors).

I did not know about the Slovak Living Abroad program, thanks for noting that ! Based only on a [reddit post](https://ns.reddit.com/r/Slovakia/comments/jr3y5c/application_for_slovak_living_abroad_certificate/) it seems doable (for someone with some Slovak ancestry, which includes me) and a relatively quick path to citizenship (potentially after 3 years of residence).

Newtonmas Meetup, 12/25/2010

optimal philanthropy starts around $10

What does this mean, assuming it isn't joke? I skimmed the articles linked from http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/3a2/100_for_the_best_article_on_efficient_charty_the/ and don't see an obvious argument that optimal philanthropy starts at some amount.