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[Link] Universal Paperclips

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Newcomb's problem divides philosophers. Which side are you on?

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Bragging Thread May 2015

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Bragging Thread March 2015

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December 2014 Bragging Thread

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Rocket science and big money - a cautionary tale of math gone wrong

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[Link] How to Win at Forecasting - a conversation with Philip Tetlock

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Raising the forecasting waterline (part 2)

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Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1)

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Raising the waterline

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Recent Comments

By now this looks rather unlikely in the original time-frame, even though there are still encouraging hints from time to time.

Me, as well.

(Edit: looking at Internet Archive's [cached snapshots](*/, all of them that I checked look that way to me too.)

(Edit2: it has looked that way [to others as well](http://lesswrong.c...(read more)

I'm seeing similarities between this and Goldratt's "Evaporating Cloud". You might find it worthwhile to read up on applications of EC in the literature on Theory of Constraints, if you haven't already.

Does that mean Main is no longer deprecated?

I realize I haven't given a direct answer yet, so here it is: I'm in, if I'm wanted, and if some of the changes discussed here take place. (What it would take to get me onboard is, at the least, an explicit editorial policy and people in charge of enforcing it.)

> There was a sudden exodus of talent, which reduced posting frequency, and took the wind out of the sails.

I'd be wary of *post hoc ergo propter hoc* in this context. You might also have expected that by leaving for other projects these posters would create a vacuum for others to fill. It could be...(read more)

Yes, and this would be a general trend - affecting all community blogs to some extent. I was looking for an explanation for the downfall of LessWrong specifically, but I suppose it's also interesting to consider general trends.

Would you say that LessWrong is *particularly* prone to this effect, an...(read more)

This feels like a good start but one that needs significant improvement too.

For instance, I'm wondering how much of the situation Anna laments is a result of LW lacking an explicit editorial policy. I for one never quite felt sure what was or wasn't relevant for LW - what had a shot at being promo...(read more)

We have lately ceased to have a "single conversation" in this way.

Can we hope to address this without understanding why it happened?

What are y'all's theories of why it happened?