Thanks for the detailed post and your work at ControlAI. A few questions:
On timelines: when you say 10% chance of success, does that mean within 1 year at $50M, or after several years of sustained funding at that level? And how many years do you think we have before a treaty becomes impossible to enforce?
On strategy: given the 10% figure, you are already in long-shot territory. In decision theory, when resources are limited and you are in an unfavorable game, the mathematically optimal approach is often 'bold play': maximizing variance rather than playing ...
I am a volunteer for PauseAI and I think it could be valuable to describe my experience.
I am a software dev and became AGI-aware in 2025 by listening to many podcasts. Then in January 2026 stumbled upon this video from the first PauseCon "The ASI Survival Handbook | Connor Leahy" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa0EpXiPm_E
This convinced me to finally get off my ass and do something. And it gave me hope. So I joined the PauseAI discord community. I was welcomed quiet nicely and invited to online meetups. In February I decided to partake in the second PauseC... (read more)