Thanks for the detailed post and your work at ControlAI. A few questions:
On timelines: when you say 10% chance of success, does that mean within 1 year at $50M, or after several years of sustained funding at that level? And how many years do you think we have before a treaty becomes impossible to enforce?
On strategy: given the 10% figure, you are already in long-shot territory. In decision theory, when resources are limited and you are in an unfavorable game, the mathematically optimal approach is often 'bold play': maximizing variance rather than playing ... (read more)
Thanks for the detailed post and your work at ControlAI. A few questions:
On timelines: when you say 10% chance of success, does that mean within 1 year at $50M, or after several years of sustained funding at that level? And how many years do you think we have before a treaty becomes impossible to enforce?
On strategy: given the 10% figure, you are already in long-shot territory. In decision theory, when resources are limited and you are in an unfavorable game, the mathematically optimal approach is often 'bold play': maximizing variance rather than playing ... (read more)