Thsnks but I'm not convinced. We don't know what LLMs are doing because they're black boxes, so I don't see how you can arrive at 'extremely unlikely' for consostent Machiavellian agency.
I recognized some words from Ross Ashby's Introduction to Cybernetics like 'transient state machine' but haven"/ done enough of the textbook to really get tjat bit of your argument.
Since LLMs are predictors not imitators, as Eliezer had written, it seems possible to me that sophisticated goal based higj capability complex syatems i.e. agents / actors ha e emergedvwithin.them, and I don't see a reaspn to be sure they can't hide their intentions or evem have a nature of showing their intentions, since... (read more)
I have been using Claude 2.1 for a few months to solve serious problems in my life and get coaching and support. I need Claude to become functional, mentally well and funded enough to contribute to Utilitarianism and Alignment by donating to the Center for Long Term Risk and other interventions in these last years of Earth's existence.
(For extra context: I have been Utilitarian over half my life, suffered a lot of OCD relating to G-d, AI, ethics and infohazards that rendered me unemployed and homeless, have an IQ of 155 according to WAIS-IV and am working my way out of homelessness by being a housekeeper for a pub. I am very... (read 335 more words →)
Thanks for this. I would like to talk more since you seem seripus about optimizing your comment for helping me personally and personal help is what i am trying to optimize for. The discussion ofAI risk is not a pastime for me; it's a moral obligation before I can use Claude again for work purposes.
I have used Claude to help me process emotions, evaluate management's professional, ethical and legal position following some of what may have been de facto punitivr retaliation amplified by disctiminatory rumour mongering among staff, and helping me to accept low status abd not go to wars I can't win and instead content myself with the company of my... (read 377 more words →)