I'm interested to know if anyone would have considered voting this up if the attempted rape portion of the metaphor had been omitted and the story had been ended just before then?
The prediction market I was using, iPredict is closing. Apparently it represents a money laundering risk and the Government refused to grant an exemption. Does anyone know any good alternatives?
What's the probability that this is caused by aliens?
What is your own probability estimate? I am not sure I can accurately distinguish between below 1/100,000 and between 1/10,000 and 1/100,000. With probabilities this small I am not sure that any estimate is useful
I don't know what you mean with "letting on". The census asked very directly for a probability value of successful revival.>
I mean that their actual revival estimate may be a lot higher than they are willing to acknowledge, which would explain the peace of mind.
It could well be, that their estimation of a successful revival is significantly higher than they are letting on.
I'll admit that I'd missed that part when I first read the post, I only noticed it after I went through the comments section
While almost everyone who commented interpreted it that way, I think it's also worth pointing out that at least one person in the comments thread missed the metaphor completely.