I don't know if it's appropriate to put something by C.S. Lewis into the review, but I think this essay is really good and it has given me a thing to notice which is when people who are in the in-group are encouraging me to be less moral in exchange for a sense of belonging. 

I think this applies to jobs too. Should I work in a job that people I like will like, or should I work in a job that I actually think I can justify is the best thing to do? 

Nice set of human stories.

Surveys seem very important. Unclear if this post should be where my favour goes but still.

Somewhat worrying the extent that reading Planecrash really does help understand this.

Does LW have spoilter tags?

edit moderate planecrash spoiler that comes perhaps 70 hours of listening in. 

I take Perplexity to be about 80% accurate, but this suggests the above isn't accurate. He had signed off on multiple bombs and didn't stop the second between the 6th and 9th when he could have.

Seems like lots of people found this valuable, so bayes points I guess. 

To me, this seems like a specific version of a more general case of "there's no substitute for being right". These people did a good thing in trying to be right and listing out options, taking a careful path, but in your view, they just weren't.

I don't think this somehow makes listed auctions bad. It just means that you have to be careful to be right. 

Clearly, they did something wrong

I don't think it is clear there is something wrong at this stage. Their entire job is forecasting things well, and they're quite good at it. So, the fact that their forecasts don't match what you think they should be is not instantly a loss for them. 

I find Twitter unusually disheartening at the moment. Feels like many people have decided "oh let's have a huge conflict and hate one another"

I said "fine" not good. I think it's been a steady upward trend on everything but animal welfare (and AI but that's currently what we are discussing)