AI Probability Trees

Wiki Contributions


A problem with overly kind PR is that many people know that you don't deserve the reputation. So if you start to fall, you can fall hard and fast.

Likewise it incentivises investigation that you can't back up.

If everyone thinks I am lovely, but I am two faced, I create a juicy story any time I am cruel. Not so if am known to be grumpy.

eg My sense is that EA did this a bit with the press tour around What We Owe The Future. It built up a sense of wisdom that wasn't necessarily deserved, so with FTX it all came crashing down.

Personally I don't want you to think I am kind and wonderful. I am often thoughtless and grumpy. I think you should expect a mediocre to good experience. But I'm not Santa Claus.

I am never sure whether rats are very wise or very naïve to push for reputation over PR, but I think it's much more sustainable.

@ESYudkowsky can't really take a fall for being goofy. He's always been goofy - it was priced in.

Many organisations think they are above maintaining the virtues they profess to possess, instead managing it with media relations.

In doing this they often fall harder eventually. Worse, they lose out on the feedback from their peers accurately seeing their current state.

Journalists often frustrate me as a group, but they aren't dumb. Whatever they think is worth writing, they probably have a deeper sense of what is going on.

Personally I'd prefer to get that in small sips, such that I can grow, than to have to drain my cup to the bottom.

I've made a big set of expert opinions on AI and my inferred percentages from them. I guess that some people will disagree with them. 

I'd appreciate hearing your criticisms so I can improve them or fill in entries I'm missing.

Though sometimes the obligation to answer is right, right? I guess maybe it's that obligation works well at some scale, but then becomes bad at some larger scale. In a coversation, it's fine, in a public debate, sometimes it seems to me that it doesn't work.

I think the motivating instances are largely:

  • Online debates are bad
  • Freedom Of Information requests suck

I think I probably backfilled from there.

I do sometimes get persistant questions on twitter, but I don't think there is a single strong example.

Sadly you are the second person to correct me on this @Paul Crowley was first. Ooops. 

The solution is not to prevent the questions, but to remove the obligation to generate an expensive answer.

Good suggestion.

Thank you, this is the kind of thing I was hoping to find.

What changes do you think the polyamory community has made?

I find this a very suspect detail, though the base rate of cospiracies is very low.

"He wasn't concerned about safety because I asked him," Jennifer said. "I said, 'Aren't you scared?' And he said, 'No, I ain't scared, but if anything happens to me, it's not suicide.'"

To be more explicit about my model, I see communities as a bit like people. And sometimes people do the hard work of changing (especially as they have incentives to) but sometimes they ignore it or blame someone else.

Similarly often communties scapegoat something or someone, or give vague general advice.

Load More