Nathan Young

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Play manifold markets, try and bet on questions that matter and see if you can make money. I can only do so with quite a lot of research, so I should be much more wary of where my views differ without significant research.

If you think this is a consensus guide, I think you should add it to a wiki page. I am happy to do so.

If people think that shouldn't be the case, I'd ask what the wiki is for other than for broad consensus opinions.

Maybe consider taking votes on some things, writing prediction markets on what the votes will be at the end of the session.

The original post on the forum was written by multiple people, hence the use of "our"

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In the past, we've often seen that officers in charge of nukes don't launch them (Archipov, the Generals in the Trump admin seemed minded to ensure they got a look in before launch). What probability do you assign that when told to launch a nuke, the Russian officers don't?

What % are the 70% that Ukraine doesn't get nuked composed of?

I think Russia has already suffered quite a lot of embarrassment and hasn't nuked yet. According to your model, why not?

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